Daily review of urea: Nissan continues to low price decline with limited limit (January 9)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 9 was 2,372.86, a decrease of 15.45 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.65%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.78%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2048, the highest price is 2083, the lowest price is 2041, the settlement price is 2062, and the closing price is 2075. The closing price is 15 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.72% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2041-2083; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 215; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 12901 lots today, and so far, it has held 160,400 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued their downward trend, and the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. However, due to the slow recovery of supply, the downward trend was small.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,120 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,290 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,430 - 2,470 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,250 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,440 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,350 - 2,360 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 2,300 - 2,800 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers still have an appropriate amount of orders to be issued. The current quotations are stable and downward. The company's supply of goods is tight. The current shipment of goods is normal, and there is a single discussion. In terms of the market, under the influence of the news of the printing and labeling, the industry's worries about the Chinese market have increased. The current industry operation is weak, the market sentiment is relatively low, and the transaction atmosphere continues to be weak. In terms of supply, the current industry's Nissan still maintains a low level, and short-term start-ups have shown no sign of improvement. As gas companies start construction in the middle and late this month, Nissan is expected to resume one after another. In terms of demand, most of the agricultural demand is just in need of phased replenishment, but just in need of continuation, but the sustainability is relatively limited; industrial upstream and downstream compound fertilizer factories are slow to start and recover, and replenishment continues to wait and see.

On the whole, the price of urea companies continues to decline during the process of executing pending orders. However, under the influence of the current low Nissan level, the price decline is limited. It is expected that the price of urea in the market will continue to be stable and slow in the short term.