PVC futures analysis: January 8 V2405 contract opening price: 5840, highest price: 5867, lowest price: 5805, position: 899694, settlement price: 5839, yesterday settlement: 5843, down: 4, daily trading volume: 702690 lots, precipitated capital: 3.684 billion, capital outflow: 56.13 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
|
Area |
Price 1.5 |
Price 1.8 |
Rise and fall |
Remarks |
|
North China |
5450-5480 |
5460-5490 |
10/10 |
Send to cash remittance |
|
East China |
5580-5630 |
5580-5630 |
0/0 |
Cash out of the warehouse |
|
South China |
5650-5680 |
5620-5670 |
-30/-10 |
Cash out of the warehouse |
|
Northeast China |
5500-5650 |
5500-5650 |
0/0 |
Send to cash remittance |
|
Central China |
5570-5650 |
5570-5640 |
0/-10 |
Send to cash remittance |
|
Southwest |
5480-5600 |
5480-5600 |
0/0 |
Kuti / send to |
PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are mainly weak finishing, the atmosphere at the beginning of the week maintained. Valuation comparison: North China rose 10 yuan / ton, East China stable, South China fell 10-30 yuan / ton, Northeast China stable, Central China fell 10 yuan / ton, Southwest China stable. The factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises coincides with the week, most of them are stable and there is no obvious adjustment, and there are not many contracts signed in the same generation. The futures price is weak, traders in all regions have few transactions with one price offer, the market price is relatively high and has no advantage, the basis offer is slightly weaker, and the supply price advantage of point price under the operation of low futures price is relatively obvious. among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(200-250), South China 05 contract-(130-220), North 05 contract-(530-580), Southwest 05 contract-(260) At the beginning of the week, under the operation of low prices, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches has been improved, but there are still some enterprises with low order prices and rigid demand for transaction.
From a futures point of view: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract rose slightly at the start of night trading on Friday, with the night trading at its highest point. On Monday, early futures began to weaken and decline in the high range of night trading, bottoming out at 5805, and rising slightly in the afternoon. 2405 contracts range from 5805 to 5867 throughout the day, with a spread of 62. 05. The contract reduced its position by 17630 hands and has held 899694 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5953, with 62143 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
Futures: The operation of PVC2405 contract futures continues the trend of last Friday, hovering in the low range, and the volatility range of today's market is getting narrower and narrower. The iterative low of last Friday continued to test position 5800 but did not effectively fall below. On the one hand, there is some multi-single resistance in the low range, on the other hand, there are some point price supply transactions in this range, coupled with some short order profit-taking. Therefore, there is a certain trend of position reduction on Monday. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) continues to expand, and the technical closing line is still not ideal, but the distance between the KD lines at the daily line level is shortened. On the whole, we still think that in the short term or continue to test the low range, continue to observe the support performance in the range of 5750-5800.
Spot: first of all, the low volatility of the futures price led to some low pending orders, the overall inquiry enthusiasm has been improved, although the transaction is still dominated by rigid demand, but corresponding to the high range, the spot market transaction atmosphere is still much better, the so-called spot market buy down do not buy up, and based on the expectations of the future period after the Spring Festival, forward pre-sale price is not lower. The current PVC fundamentals still maintain the previous factors, but with the shortening of time, the two cities may still face a low test in the short-term PVC period, and the seasonal off-season characteristics are obvious. On the outer disk, international oil prices rose as the US secretary of state began a week-long trip to the Middle East in an attempt to contain regional tensions caused by the Israel-Hamas conflict. In addition, oil prices were boosted by news that Fed minutes showed that inflation had been brought under control. On the whole, PVC spot in the short term or still a narrow adjustment.
PVC spread arbitrage analysis:
|
Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread |
||||
|
PVC |
Contract price difference |
Price 1.5 |
Price 1.8 |
Rate of change |
|
V2405 collection |
5824 |
5849 |
25 |
|
|
Average spot price in East China |
5605 |
5605 |
0 |
|
|
Average spot price in South China |
5665 |
5645 |
-20 |
|
|
PVC2405 basis difference |
-219 |
-244 |
-25 |
|
|
V2409 collection |
5928 |
5953 |
25 |
|
|
V2405-2409 close |
-104 |
-104 |
0 |
|
|
PP2405 collection |
7377 |
7312 |
-65 |
|
|
Plastic L2405 collection |
8127 |
8065 |
-62 |
|
|
V--PP basis difference |
-1553 |
-1463 |
90 |
|
|
Vmure-L basis difference of plastics |
-2303 |
-2216 |
87 |
|
China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 2.95 or 0.053% to 5579.25 on January 8. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5839.85, down 31.66, with a range of 0.539%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 260.6.
PVC warehouse receipt daily:
|
Variety |
Warehouse / branch warehouse |
1.5 warehouse orders |
1.8 warehouse order quantity |
change |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
China Reserve shares |
2,245 |
2,245 |
0 |
|
|
Guangzhou materials |
963 |
963 |
0 |
|
|
China Central Reserve Nanjing |
1,282 |
1,282 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Cosco sea logistics |
1,195 |
1,195 |
0 |
|
|
Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea |
1,195 |
1,195 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang International Trade |
4,806 |
5,366 |
560 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Peak supply chain |
2,813 |
2,813 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Jiangyin Xiefeng |
4,655 |
4,655 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Benniu Port, Changzhou |
20,458 |
20,518 |
60 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Hangzhou port logistics |
153 |
153 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Jiangsu Zhengsheng |
3,495 |
3,495 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai |
84 |
84 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Changxing, Zhejiang |
570 |
570 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Jiangsu Yanjin |
3,322 |
3,322 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port) |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu) |
230 |
230 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port) |
298 |
298 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade) |
149 |
149 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port) |
450 |
450 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing) |
300 |
300 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Yongan Capital (Benniu Port) |
1,200 |
1,200 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port) |
2,399 |
2,399 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade) |
1,800 |
1,800 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade) |
1,238 |
1,238 |
0 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Sinotrans East China |
687 |
1,387 |
700 |
|
Polyvinyl chloride |
Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port) |
581 |
581 |
0 |
|
PVC subtotal |
|
53,428 |
54,748 |
1,320 |
|
Total |
|
53,428 |
54,748 |
1,320 |
PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:
The information provided in this report is for reference only.
