Methanol: Methanol is now at a low level and fluctuates. Market transactions are limited

On January 5, the methanol market price index was 2211.23, up 6.03 from yesterday, and 0.27% higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 4:

China CFR 282-284 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 338.5-339.5 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 284-285 euros / ton, down 10 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2170-2220 (0), North Route: 1930-1940 (20), Lunan: 2380 (0), Henan: 2250-2260 (- 10), Shanxi: 2120-2200 (0), Port: 2405-2430 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-390 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-340 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-190 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: recently, the price of methanol market is weak, the futures market is low and fluctuating, some operators enter the market to replenish goods at every bargain, the bidding of manufacturers in the main producing areas is smooth, the plant failure of Jiutai 2 million tons is about to stop, and the local market supply has been reduced. however, the futures market continues to be weak, the cautious mood of the operators in the market still exists, and the overall trading volume of the market is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted narrowly, with the quotation for the southern route around 1950 yuan / ton, and the northern line around 1930-1940 yuan / ton, the Jiutai plant is temporarily stopped, and the local supply is narrowly reduced, but due to the short parking time, the effect on boosting the market is limited. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2300 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with futures market volatility falling, the mindset of bearish operators, coupled with the poor performance of downstream demand, and downstream manufacturers keep low price operations. the rigid demand for replenishment is given priority to, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation today 2240-2300 yuan / ton, downstream bargain into the market rigid demand to buy, the shipping speed of some manufacturers slowed down compared with the previous period. Shanxi region quotation stable operation, today's quotation stable to 2120-2200 yuan / ton, futures disk operation is weak and volatile, the spot market and business mentality slightly drag, the market trading atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated today and rebounded in the afternoon. Near-end price sale, rigid demand procurement, within the month the price difference narrowed. Forward arbitrage shipments, buy gas is better, bargain point to receive goods actively, the basis hold slightly stable, 1 big 2 price difference enlarged. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 1: 2385-2410, base difference 05 "15 prime 20 position 1 deal: 2390-2415, base spread 05" 18 pm 20 position 1 deal: 2390-2410, basis 05 "17 pm 20 position 2 deal : 2410-2420, the basis difference is 0.5-37cm 40.

Forecast in the future: after the holiday, the spot market of methanol continues to fall. Although the equipment in the Chinese market changes frequently, the overall supply pressure still exists, the situation of oversupply in the market has not been alleviated, and the ignition of Zhongxin and Dahua units is restarted. It is planned to produce qualified products in the near future, Huayu reduces the negative, Guohong plant stops as scheduled, Jiutai 2 million ton plant stops for a short time, and the market supply in some areas has been reduced. However, at present, the performance of the terminal downstream market is still poor, and near the end of the year, the terminal downstream demand may continue to weaken, so it is difficult for the demand side to bring favorable support to the methanol market in the short term. At present, the short-term coal price is difficult to give some support to methanol, coupled with the current contradiction between supply and demand of methanol, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price is weak, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.