Daily Review of Urea: Companies are waiting to support agricultural cover positions significantly increased (January 4)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the price index of urea small pellets on January 4 was 2,408.64, an increase of 9.55 from yesterday, an increase of 0.40% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.42%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR405 contract is 2200, the highest price is 2224, the lowest price is 2152, the settlement price is 2185, and the closing price is 2159. The closing price is 15 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.69% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2152-2224; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 181; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 9287 lots today, and so far, the position is 160,300 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to rise slightly. Recently, the market trading atmosphere has been good, and companies from various places have received a large number of orders. Currently, with the support of waiting, companies 'factory quotations have been slightly adjusted.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,370 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,180 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,350 - 2,360 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,320 - 2,390 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,320 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,440 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,460 - 2,520 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers have received good advance receipts recently. Currently, each factory has a certain amount of pending orders, and there is no sales pressure. Some companies have stopped collecting payments and raised their quotations. Prices are stable and upward. It is expected that market prices will be stable in the future. It will operate steadily. In terms of the market, market transactions have improved recently. After the market closed at a low price, the price has increased slightly. The current market is appropriately following up. In terms of supply, company starts this week increased slightly compared with last week, output rose simultaneously, and overall supply remained low. In terms of demand, although the current downstream purchase of goods has slowed down compared with the previous few days, after several days of continuous price increases, downstream buying sentiment has been driven, agricultural cover positions has increased significantly, and market demand has gradually emerged.

On the whole, the current transaction atmosphere in the urea market has improved significantly. Companies have a certain amount of waiting orders, and low-priced goods in the market are obviously moving. It is expected that the urea market price will consolidate and operate in a short period of time, and the upward trend will slow down.