Daily Review of Urea: Goods at the low-end market are better and current quotations are stable (January 3)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 3 was 2,399.09, an increase of 6.82 from yesterday, an increase of 0.29% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.57%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR405 contract: 2138, the highest price: 2206, the lowest price: 2132, the settlement price: 2174, the closing price increased by 64 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 3.02% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2132-2206; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong region is 136; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 8926 lots today, and the position held so far is 169,600 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have increased slightly. Recently, the market transaction atmosphere for low-cost sources has been good, and the current company quotations are mostly stable.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,350 - 2,440 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,180 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,340 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,290 - 2,380 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,300 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,410 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,450 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers implement orders to be issued in the early stage. Currently, factories in mainstream regions are better at receiving low-price orders, and the shipment situation is acceptable. Most factory quotations are stable. In terms of the market, the market atmosphere has been better recently, and trading has increased. As the market has received more sufficient orders, the purchase of new orders has been relatively reduced. On the supply side, the industry's Nissan stocks fluctuated at a low level. In the later period, with the gradual resumption of production of equipment, Nissan may show a steady recovery trend. On the demand side, market demand maintains bargain hunting, the downstream compound fertilizer market remains weak, and overall demand continues to wait and see.

On the whole, orders in the urea market have been better recently, the market atmosphere has been boosted, and low-end sources have been significantly moved. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to fluctuate in the short term.