Daily review of urea: Downstream replenishment demand appears and market atmosphere improves (January 2)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on January 2 was 2,392.27, an increase of 1.36 from last Friday, an increase of 0.06% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2117, the highest price is 2150, the lowest price is 2085, the settlement price is 2120, and the closing price is 2130. The closing price has increased by 22 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.04% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2085-2150; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 180; the 05 contract has reduced 4 lots today, and the position held so far is 178,500 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices increased slightly, and most manufacturers 'quotations remained stable. Prices in some regions of East and South China increased slightly. Market transactions continued before the holiday.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,350 - 2,440 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,160 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,280 - 2,360 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,290 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,410 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,450 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers often accept orders at low prices. Some companies handle advance receipts before the festival, but they are still good for delivery. Affected by the positive market demand, some companies have slightly increased their quotations, and market prices have become regionalized. In terms of the market, the market moving situation has improved significantly compared with the pre-holiday period. Transactions have rebounded slightly and orders have increased. On the supply side, there was no improvement in expectations for a short period of time when the industry started, and supply remained low and volatile. On the demand side, with the end of production restrictions, market demand has gradually emerged. There are plans to resume production of industrial compound fertilizers. There is also a phased demand for fertilizer preparation in agriculture, and the market demand is being followed up in an orderly manner.

Overall, the current urea market atmosphere has improved significantly compared with the previous period, downstream demand has emerged, and industry supply is operating at a low level. It is expected that the urea market price will fluctuate in a short period of time.