Gasoline: Market trading atmosphere has cooled and gasoline market gains have stopped

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December 29, 2023, 4:35 PM

International crude oil closes

date	market	specifications	Closing (USD/barrel)	rise and fall
20231228	US	WTI	71.77	-2.34
20231228	British	Brent	78.39	-1.26

Gasoline price index

On December 29, China's 92 #gasoline price index was 8786.05, down 12.18, or 0.14%; China's 95 #gasoline price index was 9102.46, down 12.22, or 0.13%. Both the 92 #gasoline index and the 95 #gasoline index were lowered, and the price difference between the 92 #gasoline index and the 95 #gasoline index was 316.42.

Gasoline Market Analysis:

Today, the rise in the main wholesale price of gasoline in China was suspended. Gasoline prices in many places stabilized, and gasoline prices fell in some areas. Ex-factory prices of local refineries stopped rising and turned down, with gasoline prices in Shandong, North China and East China being lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the transaction atmosphere in China's gasoline market has cooled down. The centralized hoarding operations in the middle and lower reaches of the festival have basically ended. The shipment speed of refineries has slowed down. The quotations of main units are still relatively firm. The quotations of independent refineries have been appropriately lowered in areas with poor sales.

Main wholesale price of gasoline on December 29 (yuan/ton)
areas	Gasoline model	Price 12.28	Price 12.29	rise and fall
in North China	92#	8430-9600	8430-9600	0/0
in North China	95#	8630-9900	8630-9900	0/0
South China	92#	8700-9450	8700-9450	0/0
South China	95#	8900-9750	8900-9750	0/0
central China	92#	8650-9050	8650-9050	0/0
central China	95#	8850-9350	8850-9350	0/0
East China	92#	8500-8890	8500-8890	0/0
East China	95#	8600-9100	8570-9100	-30/0
northwestern region	92#	8550-9600	8550-9600	0/0
northwestern region	95#	8750-9860	8750-9860	0/0
southwestern region	92#	8800-9250	8800-9250	0/0
southwestern region	95#	9000-9600	9000-9600	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8400-8950	8400-8950	0/0
Northeast China	95#	8650-9950	8650-9950	0/0

Ex-factory price of local gasoline refining on December 29 (yuan/ton)
areas	Gasoline model	Price 12.28	Price 12.29	rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8300-8700	8230-8650	-70/-50
Shandong area	95#	8400-8860	8330-8810	-70/-70
in North China	92#	8390-8500	8340-8400	-50/-100
in North China	95#	8490-8550	8440-8450	-50/-100
central China	92#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0
central China	95#	8900-8900	8900-8900	0/0
East China	92#	8300-8620	8300-8570	0/-50
East China	95#	8420-8750	8420-8700	0/-50
northwestern region	92#	8250-8650	8250-8650	0/0
northwestern region	95#	8500-8850	8500-8850	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8300-8350	8300-8380	0/30
Northeast China	95#	8500-8500	8500-8500	0/0
southwestern region	92#	8800-8800	8800-8800	0/0
southwestern region	95#	8950-8950	8950-8950	0/0

market outlook

From the perspective of international crude oil, concerns about the Red Sea incident have eased. Crude oil fundamentals have declined, and good support at the supply level is still in place. The Federal Reserve has expectations of cutting interest rates. There is room for upward growth in international oil prices. Judging from the Chinese market, next week, the main units may have a "good start" in early 2024, and the intensity of price reduction promotions may increase to curb the increase in gasoline prices. In addition, in 2024, China's first batch of refined oil export quotas will be issued totaling 19 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58% and a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. Overall, China's gasoline market is expected to stabilize and decline in the short term.