China Urea Price Index:
According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on December 28 was 2,392.27, a decrease of 17.55 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.55%.
Urea futures market:
Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2085, the highest price is 2125, the lowest price is 2066, the settlement price is 2102, and the closing price is 2114. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the month-on-month increase is 1.20%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2066-2125; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 156; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 3923 lots today, and so far, it has held 182,000 lots.
Spot market analysis:
Today, China's urea market prices continue to consolidate downward. Recently, market prices have been falling continuously. Downstream intends to enter the market to make up for orders, and market transactions have improved slightly compared with the previous period.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,380 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,170 - 2,440 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,340 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,300 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,410 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,440 - 2,550 yuan/ton.
Market outlook forecast:
In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to reduce their orders. When a small number of new orders are followed up, the pressure on manufacturers to collect orders before the holiday has doubled. Currently, company quotations have been lowered and demand follow-up is insufficient. Manufacturers 'shipments are under pressure, and the focus of market transactions continues to move downward. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere continues to operate in a weak manner. Currently, low-end prices in the market continue to emerge, and downstream demand is cautious in making up orders. In terms of supply, most of the air head devices that had maintenance plans in the early stage have been stopped. Some enterprise devices were affected by the weather and equipment failures occurred, and the market supply continued to operate in a weak position. On the demand side, the market demand is sporadic to make up orders. Low prices in the current market continue to appear. Downstream intends to make up positions in a timely and appropriate manner. However, affected by price trends and market conditions, the overall purchasing mentality continues to be cautious and wait and see.
On the whole, the pressure on urea companies to collect orders before the holiday has doubled, and the market price has continued to decline. Companies intend to make up orders while waiting and waiting. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to maintain a stable and downward consolidation in the short term.
