Methanol: Demand-side support weakens and methanol period is now weak and volatile

On December 27th, the methanol market price index was 2242.36, down 15.41 from yesterday, and 0.68 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 26th:

China CFR 285-292 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 335.5-336.5 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton

Markets are closed in Europe.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2260 (0), North Route: 1950-1970 (- 30), Lunan: 2460 (0), Henan: 2300-2330 (0), Shanxi: 2180-2280 (- 70), Port: 2450-2465 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 280-390 (0max 0), South Line-North Shandong 300-350 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 140-200 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-230 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market continues to be weak, the futures market is overcast, the spot quotation of the port pulls back with the market, and the mindset of the operators in the market is poor. Although the price of New Year's Day is approaching this week, the enthusiasm of replenishment in the lower reaches is not high, and the transaction still maintains rigid demand. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2030 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1950-1970 yuan / ton, and the futures market is low and fluctuating, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market to a certain extent. coupled with the continuous correction of freight prices, manufacturers' quotations do not have enough power to push up. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell within a narrow range, with 2460 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2320-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, the follow-up of terminal downstream market demand is limited, rigid demand consumption, general trading atmosphere on the market, coupled with futures market volatility, negative market sentiment, but the current low inventory operation of manufacturers, manufacturers still maintain price sentiment. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation 2300-2350 yuan / ton today, the current terminal demand is difficult to improve, downstream to maintain the rigid demand for bargain-hunting, manufacturers wait-and-see mood still exists. The quotation in Shanxi region has been running steadily, and the quotation has been lowered to 2180-2280 yuan / ton today. At present, some downstream enterprises in the field are restricted by the weather warning, the production of methanol is reduced, and the operators' mentality is poor, and the market quotation is lowered along with it.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. Within a month, the rigid demand will be negotiated and the transaction will be concluded at a reasonable price. Forward arbitrage shipments, a small number of unilateral low enquiries, the basis remains stable. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: 12 deals: 2430-2445, base difference 05: 10, base difference: 2435: 2445, base difference: 05: 20, transaction price: 2440-2445, basis difference: 05: 35, transaction price: 2445-2455, basis difference: 05: 48.

Future forecast: recently, the Chinese market is affected by weather warning devices, and the opening of the terminal downstream market is limited. To a certain extent, the demand for methanol in the downstream market is approaching New Year's Day's holiday this week. However, the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish stock is not high, the new orders in the market are willing to follow up, coupled with the impact of macro news, the futures market continues to decline, most of the operators in the market have obvious wait-and-see mood. The volume of market transactions is mediocre. At present, with the approach of New Year's Day's holiday, there is a certain depot demand from upstream manufacturers, the overall supply performance of the market is abundant, and the downstream market demand is weakening, and under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to operate weakly, but in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.