PVC: The futures price showed a pullback in increased positions, the open opening was slightly suppressed, and the spot market weakened slightly

PVC futures analysis: December 26th V2405 contract opening price: 6114, highest price: 6122, lowest price: 6056, position: 706478, settlement price: 6085, yesterday settlement: 6108, down: 23, daily trading volume: 731003 lots, precipitated capital: 3.001 billion, capital inflow: 63.32 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.25	Price 12.26	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5640-5680	5640-5680	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5800-5860	5790-5820	-10/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5810-5900	5780-5860	-30/-40	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5600-5800	5550-5800	-50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5730-5770	5670-5750	-60/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5640-5740	5600-5660	-40/-80	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, market sentiment weakened. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 10-40 yuan / ton, South China is down 30-40 yuan / ton, Northeast China is down 50 yuan / ton, Central China is down 20-60 yuan / ton, and Southwest China is down 40-80 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remained stable, and individual enterprises lowered their quotations by 50 yuan / ton in exchange for better transaction and supply digestion. Futures shock lower, traders a price offer lower than yesterday, high-price offer is still difficult to close, but the spot price supply advantage is relatively obvious after the futures price goes down. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(260-280-320), South China 05 contract-(150-220), North 05 contract-(620), Southwest 05 contract-(260-300). Basis small adjustment, although the two quotations coexist, but the actual transaction in the spot market is mediocre, the downstream cautious procurement is active in general, only to maintain the rigid demand for replenishment, the spot market is slightly weak.

 

Futures point of view:   PVC2405 contract night trading after the opening shock weakened, there is a certain downward trend. It weakened further after the start of morning trading, but fell slightly and rebounded slightly in the morning session. Afternoon prices continued to fluctuate at low levels, but weakened again in late trading. 2405 contracts range from 6056 to 6122 throughout the day, with a spread of 66. 05 contracts with an increase of 19996 positions and 706478 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5833, with 85727 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures:   PVC2405 contract futures show a certain pressure performance in the high range, which is unstable as we expected, and the short opening is slightly better, of which the short opening is 25.8% compared with 22.6% more. On the one hand, the rise caused by the incident is not a substantial change in fundamentals, in the case of poor spot digestion, there is the entry of hedging policies. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are narrowed, the KD line at the daily level shows a dead fork, and the MACD white line means to turn around. The narrowing trend may herald the end of the market, and in the short term, futures prices may consider going back to the mid-track position to observe the support performance in the range of 6000-6030.

 

Spot aspect:    futures market price rise makes the spot market transaction is not good, although today's price decline, but the terminal still has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Under the game of supply and demand, the poor digestion of spot caused by weak demand has always been the shackle of the prices of the two markets. In the short term, there are few variables from fundamentals, and when there is no change, the upside caused by unexpected time is relatively short. For more chlor-alkali enterprises, the rise in calcium carbide price has caused greater production pressure to calcium carbide production enterprises, especially in Shandong, southwest, central China and other areas where calcium carbide is mined, and under the impact of the relatively low cost of ethylene process, the single product of calcium carbide PVC has a loss, and there is also a situation of low valuation, which is also the consensus of the whole industrial chain, but when supply and demand are weak, the restriction of demand is more obvious.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.25	Price 12.26	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	6114	6069	-45
	Average spot price in East China	5830	5805	-25
	Average spot price in South China	5855	5820	-35
	PVC2405 basis difference	-284	-264	20
	V2409 collection	6214	6169	-45
	V2405-2409 close	-100	-100	0
	PP2405 collection	7627	7601	-26
	Plastic L2405 collection	8288	8282	-6
	V--PP basis difference	-1513	-1532	-19
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2174	-2213	-39

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 27.01 or 0.468 per cent to 5742.95 on December 26th. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5995.08, down 0.52, with a range of 0.009%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 252.13.

 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.25 warehouse orders	12.26 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	584	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	3,607	3,607	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	19,494	19,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	687	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		50,621	50,621	0
Total		50,621	50,621	0

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

 

The information provided in this report is for reference only.