Methanol: Futures market fluctuates at a low level and the spot market is consolidated within a narrow range

On December 26th, the methanol market price index was 2257.77, down 7.51 from yesterday and 0.33% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 25:

China CFR 290-295 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton

Markets in Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia are closed for Christmas.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2260 (0), North Route: 1980-2020 (0), Lunan: 2460 (- 20), Henan: 2300-2330 (- 20), Shanxi: 2250-2265 (0), Port: 2450-2485 (- 45)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-390 (- 10 Universe Muir 40), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 300-350 (- 20 Universe 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-200 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 190-230 (- 20 Compay 20)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are weak and volatile, and the mentality of market operators is general. Although freight prices continue to fall, downstream delivery costs have been reduced, but the recent futures market low shock, the market operators still wait-and-see mood for the future, downstream rigid demand for replenishment. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen in a narrow range, with the quotation on the south line around 2030-2050 yuan / ton and the price on the north line around 1980-2010 yuan / ton. The low volatility of the futures market to a certain extent suppresses the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market, and the industry mainly chooses low rigid demand. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell narrowly, with 2460 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, the market demand downstream of the terminal is limited. Under the consumption of rigid demand, the trading atmosphere is general. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation 2350-2400 yuan / ton today, the current terminal demand is difficult to improve, downstream to maintain the rigid demand for bargain-hunting, manufacturers wait-and-see mood still exists. Shanxi region quotation stable operation, today's quotation stable to 2250-2265 yuan / ton, although the factory inventory is still in the low and medium level, still maintain the price mentality, but in the short term downstream market demand is difficult to have obvious volume, the market transaction atmosphere is limited.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. Spot demand is general, the basis is weak; under the month rigid demand negotiations, long-term arbitrage and exchange-based, unilateral participation is limited, the basis is stable. The overall turnover is light. Taicang main port transaction price: 12 deals: 2450-2460, basis difference 05: 15: 1 transaction: 2455-2460, basis difference 05: 20, transaction price: 2470, basis difference 05: 30, transaction 2: 2480, basis difference 05: 40.

Forecast in the future: with the gradual return to normal of transportation, freight prices in the region continue to fall, and the shipping costs of manufacturers in the main producing areas have been reduced, forming a certain support for the mentality of operators to a certain extent, but the recent low volatility of the futures market suppresses the replenishment enthusiasm of operators, and the overall market transaction still maintains rigid demand. At present, with the approach of New Year's Day's holiday, there is a certain inventory demand from upstream manufacturers, and the futures market maintains a low volatility trend, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to adjust within a narrow range. However, in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.