Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back, spot prices showed mixed trends

On December 25, the methanol market price index was 2267.2, 0.44 lower than the previous working day, and 0.02% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 22:

China CFR 395-398USD / ton, up US $6 / tonne

European FOB 292.5-293.5 euros / ton, down 4.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 339.5-340.5 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2260 (0), North Route: 1980-2020 (0), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: 2320-2330 (5), Shanxi: 2250-2265 (0), Port: 2495-2500 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 290-400 (- 70 Universe Muir 40), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 320-360 (- 10 Uniqure 15), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-200 (0amp Mueller 30), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 210-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price trend of methanol market varies, the Chinese market adjusts narrowly, and the spot quotation of the port falls with the market fluctuation. at present, transportation is basically fully recovered, freight prices continue to fall, and the supply of negotiable goods in the market is increasing. and the terminal downstream market demand performance is general, under the consumption of rigid demand, some operators in the market still have a wait-and-see mood. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen in a narrow range, with the quotation on the south line around 2030-2050 yuan / ton, and the price on the north line around 1980-2020 yuan / ton, and the futures market has fluctuated. The mentality of operators in the market has been affected by this, and the enthusiasm of entering the market and replenishing goods is general. After the price of Changqing is lowered, the shipment is smooth, and then it is raised for the second time. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer, move steadily, with 2480 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2400-2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The wait-and-see mood of the market is obvious, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2350-2380 yuan / ton today. At present, the terminal demand is difficult to improve, and the lower reaches mostly maintain the rigid demand for entering the market on the bargain, which limits the rising range of methanol prices to a certain extent, and the manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see mood. Shanxi region quotation stable operation, today's quotation stable to 2250-2265 yuan / ton, the market wait-and-see mood is strong at the beginning of the week, the overall change is not big.

Port market: today, methanol futures fell after a weak shock. Spot rigid demand replenishment, paper goods low inquiry, arbitrage delivery-based, the basis is strong, the overall transaction throughout the day is general. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2460-2485, basis 05x23pm 28x 12: 2450-2475, base 05x10max 20pt1: 2460-2485, base 05x25x 1: 2465-2485, basis 05x25x30.

Future forecast: with the restoration of the early maintenance equipment, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is abundant at present, coupled with the fact that the impact of rain and snow on traffic has basically ended, market freight prices have been greatly reduced, and the supply of negotiable goods in the market has increased. And the futures market began to fall back, forming a certain crackdown on the mentality of the market operators, and the market trading volume is limited. In terms of demand, the current demand in the traditional downstream market is general, and affected by seasonality, the subsequent start of formaldehyde or storage downgrade expectations, some of the traditional downstream methanol consumption has been reduced, in the later stage, we need to pay attention to whether the olefin plant has maintenance. Overall, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price is weak, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.