PVC: Futures broke through with the help of unexpected events, rising first but not respecting, and the spot improved slightly at the beginning of the week

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December 25, 2023, 4:43 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 25th V2405 contract opening price: 6084, highest price: 6140, lowest price: 6064, position: 669030, settlement price: 6105, yesterday settlement: 6077, up: 28, daily trading volume: 866917 lots, precipitated capital: 2.938 billion, capital inflow: 84.06 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.22	Price 12.25	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5630-5670	5640-5680	10/10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5750-5850	5800-5860	50/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5780-5880	5810-5900	30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5800	5600-5800	50/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5720-5750	5730-5770	10/20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5740	5640-5740	40/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price atmosphere is good, the price shows a small upward trend at the beginning of the week. Valuation comparison: 10 yuan / ton in North China, 10-50 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10-20 yuan / ton in Central China, and 40 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain stable, and there is no obvious adjustment today. The operating high point of the futures price is too strong to continue to break through, and the price offer of traders in the spot market in the morning is higher than that of last Friday, and the high price has no great reference significance. After the futures price went up, the supply advantage of the point price disappeared, and the basis changed little. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(220-280-320), South China 05 contract-(150-220), North 05 contract-(620) Southwest 05 contract-(300). Although the two quotations coexist, the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is light, and the actual transaction is dominated by negotiation. The downstream procurement is not positive and the wait-and-see intention is obvious.

Futures point of view: & the nbsp; PVC2405 contract opened slightly volatile on Friday night and rose slightly in late trading. After the start of morning trading, futures prices rose slightly in a straight line, with a new high of 6153 at one point, but then prices fell and gave up some of the gains in late afternoon trading. 2405 contracts range from 6074 to 6153 throughout the day, with a price spread of 79. 05 contracts with an increase of 17452 positions and 686482 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5893, with 102872 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2405 contract futures operating high point showed a slight breakthrough on the track, and refreshed last week's operating high, the disk price effectively stabilized the 6100 position, the afternoon futures price did not fall below this position. At the close of midday, the main contracts of Chinese futures were up and down, but the overall performance of the plasticizing plate was strong, and PVC also followed an upward trend. During the weekend, the cracking workshop of an olefin plant in Zibo, Shandong Province caught fire, and the market may be more inclined to ferment with the help of this event. The current fundamentals and macro level of PVC have not changed much, but the operation of the current futures price is slightly stronger. As a whole, the operation of futures prices in the short term continues to observe the performance of the high range of 6100-6150.

Spot: spot prices in the two markets showed a slight upward trend at the beginning of the week, although prices rose, but the spot market transaction was not good, there were not many contracts signed on Monday, and all parties in the market had a heavy wait-and-see mentality, especially downstream products enterprises relatively resistant to high prices, mainly in the early days of bargain replenishment. At present, the fundamentals of PVC are impressive, although there is a small breakthrough in the disk with the help of unexpected events, considering that there is no obvious positive support for its own PVC, so the performance in the high range may still need to be observed. However, according to past experience, the changes in the two markets caused by emotion go far beyond the fundamentals. Therefore, if the futures price continues to effectively step on the 6100 mark, the medium-term market may be worth looking forward to. On the outer disk, oil prices fell before the Christmas holiday, as Angola's oil production is expected to increase after its withdrawal from OPEC. On the whole, the PVC spot market may continue the trend of small consolidation in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.22	Price 12.25	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6094	6114	20
	Average spot price in East China	5800	5830	30
	Average spot price in South China	5830	5855	25
	PVC2401 basis difference	-294	-284	10
	V2405 collection	6181	6214	33
	V2401-2405 closed	-87	-100	-13
	PP2401 collection	7624	7627	3
	Plastic L2401 collection	8240	8288	48
	V--PP basis difference	-1530	-1513	17
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2146	-2174	-28

China PVC Index: according to Tudou data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index rose 21.71, or 0.378%, to 5769.96 on December 25. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5995.6, down 1.23, with a range of 0.021%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 225.64.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.22 warehouse orders	12.25 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	2,245	0
	Guangzhou materials	963	963	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	1,282	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	584	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	4,806	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	3,607	3,607	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	18,994	19,494	500
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	3,495	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	470	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	687	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		50,121	50,621	500
Total		50,121	50,621	500