1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, the market price of soda ash in China has been firm, with prices in some regions adjusted by around 50 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton; During the week, due to equipment problems, the start-up load of some enterprises dropped. Some companies also resumed production in the early stage of maintenance, and the overall operating rate of the market did not change much; The price of soda ash is high, and the market transaction atmosphere has weakened. Companies still have some orders in hand, and new orders remain just needed to be signed, and the inventory of individual manufacturers has increased; downstream demand has basically remained stable, but soda ash prices continue to be high. Downstream companies are more cautious and have some resistance to high prices. However, due to the small pressure on manufacturers 'inventory, soda ash prices remain firm.
Forecast for next week: With the recovery of maintenance companies, the supply of soda ash in the market will increase, and more companies in the market will resume production in the later period; the inventory level of soda ash manufacturers is not high, the market supply and demand are basically balanced, and the overall price is stable, but some new orders The price may be adjusted again. In addition, imported soda ash will arrive in Hong Kong one after another in the later period. The competitive pressure for soda ash will increase. In the short term, soda ash prices will continue to operate stably, and some transaction prices will be negotiated separately.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
areas |
specifications |
December 14 |
December 21 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
2925 |
2925 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3075 |
3075 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
2850 |
2850 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3025 |
3025 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
East China |
light soda ash |
2800 |
2800 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2925 |
2925 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
central China |
light soda ash |
2800 |
2800 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2900 |
2900 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
South China |
light soda ash |
3150 |
3150 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3250 |
3250 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
2950 |
2950 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3150 |
3150 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
2750 |
2725 |
-25 |
-0.91% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2850 |
2850 |
0 |
0.00% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of December 21 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1,498.2 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 1,087.85 yuan/ton, down 0.15 yuan/ton from the previous week.
production process |
December 14 |
December 21 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
combined alkali method |
1500 |
1498.2 |
-1.8 |
-0.12% |
ammonia-soda process |
1088 |
1087.85 |
-0.15 |
-0.01% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started at 83.20%, down 1.54% month-on-month. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 645,000 tons.
Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on December 21, 2023 |
|||
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
Huainan Debang |
60 |
On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined. |
|
Xinghua, Shaanxi |
30 |
On November 28, the company began to stop the equipment for maintenance and maintenance, and the time is expected to be until the end of December |
|
Sichuan hebang |
120 |
The company's equipment was repaired from December 15 to 21 |
|
Jinshan, Henan |
390 |
On December 12, some equipment of the company will be repaired until December 18 |
|
Gansu Jinchang |
20 |
The company's equipment was repaired from December 12 to December 18 |
|
chlor-alkali process |
Qinghai Fantou |
140 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
Kunlun Jianye |
150 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
Colorful alkali industry |
110 |
December 12: Enterprises install until the end of the month |
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 356,000 tons, compared with 342,200 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 13,800 tons, or 4.03%.