Methanol: Futures continue to rise, spot market consolidation at a high level

On December 22nd, the methanol market price index was 2267.64, up 6.72 from yesterday and 0.3 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 21:

China CFR 288-292USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 297-298 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 333.5-334.5 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2260 (0), North Route: 1980-2020 (20), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: 2350-2360 (0), Shanxi: 2250-2310 (0), Port: 2460-2475 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 360-440 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 330-375 (0Uniqure 5), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-230 (0amp 20), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 210-240 (- 10 Universe 10)

Spot market: the recent futures market fluctuates upward, forming a certain support for the mindset of on-site operators, and the rigid demand for replenishment is mainly in the downstream market. at present, with the restart of the early short-stop device, the favorable support of local market supply has weakened, and the current market freight price is still relatively high, restraining the increase of methanol price to a certain extent. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen in a narrow range, with the quotation on the south line around 2030-2050 yuan / ton and the price on the north line around 1980-2020 yuan / ton. recently, the methanol futures market has maintained a strong trend, which has a certain support for the spot market, and the downstream rigid demand has mainly entered the market. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, move steadily, with 2480-2500 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2390-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Downstream operators are generally enthusiastic about restocking in the market, and freight prices are still in a high position at present. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation today 2350-2380 yuan / ton, downstream to maintain the nearest rigid demand to buy, manufacturers ship smoothly, most have completed this week's sales tasks, the current enterprises are not willing to lower the quotation. The quotation in Shanxi region is running steadily, and today it is stable to 2250-2310 yuan / ton. the main methanol futures market is higher and the mentality of operators is supported, but there is no real increase in downstream demand and the market turnover is general.

Port market: methanol futures rose and fluctuated today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand, forward paper shipments are active in high shipments, arbitrage buying, the basis continues to weaken, the monthly spread widens, and the afternoon futures consolidation atmosphere shows a slight stalemate. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2495-2500, base difference 05xpx5x: 12 transaction: 2475-2500, base difference 05x0pound 10position 1 transaction: 2495-2505, base difference 0520pm 25position 1 transaction: 2495-2520, basis difference 05x20 pound 27.

Forecast in the future: in the near future, the futures price of the main contract of methanol is strong and volatile, which has a certain support for the mood of the operators in the market, and the spot quotation of the port is raised along with the market, and the mood of the operators in some regions of China is also affected by this. However, considering the limited follow-up of the downstream demand of the terminal and the restart of the pre-maintenance equipment, the overall supply performance of the market is abundant, and the freight price is still in a high position at present. To a certain extent, it suppresses the market price. Generally speaking, the short-term methanol market is expected to fluctuate mainly. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.