PVC: Futures highs broke through the upper track and rose sharply. Technical closing was gold, and spot picked up slightly and improved

PVC futures analysis: December 22nd V2405 contract opening price: 6084, highest price: 6140, lowest price: 6064, position: 669030, settlement price: 6105, yesterday settlement: 6077, up: 28, daily trading volume: 833932 lots, precipitated capital: 2.854 billion, capital inflow: 32.08 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.21	Price 12.22	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5610-5650	5630-5670	20/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5720-5830	5750-5850	30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5760-5870	5780-5880	20/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5750	5550-5800	0/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5700-5730	5720-5750	20/20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5720	5600-5740	0/20	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise slightly, the spot market atmosphere is slightly better. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20-30 yuan / ton in East China, 10-20 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory price increase of 20-30-50 yuan / ton, different enterprises have different rates of increase, individual enterprises actively ship goods at stable prices. The futures price is on the strong side, and the price offer of traders in the morning is higher than that of yesterday, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiation. The basis offer has been adjusted after the upward price, including 05 contract in East China-(320-350), 05 contract in South China-(180-200), 05 contract in North China-(620), 05 contract in Southwest China-(300). The spot price advantage disappears after the futures price goes up, but the overall inquiry is not active, and there is not much transaction, there is resistance to the high price offer, the wait-and-see intention is obvious in the downstream, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

 

Futures point of view:   PVC2405 contract night trading opened down slightly, but the decline was not much followed by a rise in the price. Futures prices rose further after the start of morning trading, with the intraday peak reaching 6140 at one point and slightly weaker in the afternoon. 2405 contracts range from 6064 to 6140 throughout the day, with a spread of 76. 05 and an increase of 7086 positions in contracts, with 669030 positions so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5894, with 143120 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures:   PVC2405 contract futures have a high point to continue to push upward trend, in which Friday futures high rose through the Bollinger belt on the rail pressure level, but in the afternoon trend to see the upper track pressure level is relatively effective, although the price breakthrough has not effectively stood firm. Judging from the overall commodity sentiment, at the close of midday, the main contracts of Chinese futures rose widely, the container transportation index (European line) rose by 14.99%, alumina rose by 6.99%, caustic soda and glass rose by more than 4%, and coke and soda soda rose nearly 4%. There is an obvious upward trend in the cultural index. PVC by this led to a better breakthrough in futures prices, but slightly insufficient in the afternoon there is still resistance, as a whole, the operation of futures prices in the short term continues to observe the performance of the upper pressure level 6120-6150.

 

Spot:    buy down rather than buy up is the current purchasing trend in the spot market, especially downstream companies are not willing to buy after the price rise in the two markets, the overall spot market turnover is light on Friday, but the spot market atmosphere has slightly warmed up, and the upward trend of commodities as a whole is still driven. Husaiwu's attack on ships in the Red Sea caused continuous fermentation, market rumors that imports of bauxite were affected, and alumina and associated commodity caustic soda rose by the intraday limit. PVC currently does not have good fundamentals, so although there is an upside, but the overall strength is not enough, the increase is not on the list. Oil prices fell in the outer disk as Angola said it would withdraw from OPEC, calling into question OPEC's efforts to cut production to support oil prices. Looking at China's PVC spot market as a whole or finishing narrowly after the upside, we still believe that there is some pressure above the spot price.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.21	Price 12.22	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6090	6094	4
	Average spot price in East China	5775	5800	25
	Average spot price in South China	5815	5830	15
	PVC2401 basis difference	-315	-294	21
	V2405 collection	6170	6181	11
	V2401-2405 closed	-80	-87	-7
	PP2401 collection	7604	7624	20
	Plastic L2401 collection	8230	8240	10
	V--PP basis difference	-1514	-1530	-16
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2140	-2146	-6

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tudor data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index rose 19.80, or 0.346%, to 5748.25 on December 22nd. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5996.83, down 6.95, with a range of 0.116%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 248.58.

 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.21 warehouse orders	12.22 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,245	/	/
	Guangzhou materials	963	/	/
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,282	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	584	/	/
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	584	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,806	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	3,607	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	18,405	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,495	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	470	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	687	/	/
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	/	/
PVC subtotal		49,532	48541	-118
Total		49,532	48541	-118

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

 

 

The information provided in this report is for reference only.