Methanol: Futures market fluctuates upwards, Chinese markets are mixed

On December 20, the methanol market price index was 2252.67, up 4.22 from yesterday, up 0.19% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 19:

China CFR 285-290 USD / ton, up US $6 / tonne

European FOB 296-297 euros / ton, down 10.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 100,101cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 331-332 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2210-2240 (0), North Route: 1970-2240 (30), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: 2350-2360 (0), Shanxi: 2220-2300 (20), Port: 2445-2450 (30)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 330-420 (0ram 0), South Line-North Shandong 330-360 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 140-180 (0ram 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-250 (20max 0)

Spot market: the price trend of methanol market is different today, the recent international crude oil price shock is higher, driven by sentiment, methanol futures market volatility upward, the trading atmosphere of the port spot market has improved, and quotations in some regions of the Chinese market have also been raised. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen in a narrow range, with the quotation on the south line around 2030-2050 yuan / ton, and the price on the north line around 1970-2000 yuan / ton. The high volatility of the futures market has boosted the market atmosphere, and in the later period, with the gradual recovery of transport capacity, market freight prices have fallen, and manufacturers' shipments may have improved. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, moves steadily, with 2480 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2390-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, the market freight price is still in a high position, and downstream manufacturers are generally enthusiastic about replenishment. The market quotation in North China has been adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2350-2380 yuan / ton today. The road blockade has been gradually restored in the early days, and the external sources of goods have flowed into the market normally, and the supply of negotiable goods in the market has increased. However, the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish goods is general, and the volume of market transactions is limited. The quotation in Shanxi fell in a narrow range, and today it was raised to 2220-2300 yuan / ton. at present, there is no substantial change in downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high, but today's methanol futures market is higher, which gives a slight boost to the spot market.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded today. Spot holding price sale, rigid demand procurement, Shengshui forward. Long-term paper goods every high shipment, arbitrage buy order delivery, the basis is weaker obviously. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2470-2480, base difference 05: 50 pound 55: 12 transaction: 2450-2470, base difference 05: 30 pound: 45 pound 01cm 15: 15, transaction price: nbsp;:2455-2480, base difference: 05: 35 pound: 50: 01: 15: 20.

Future forecast: recently, the Red Sea incident disturbed the crude oil market and promoted the continuous rise in international crude oil prices. under the influence of the positive mood, the methanol futures market fluctuated upward, which boosted the port spot price by a narrow range. So far, the port area market inventory accumulated slightly, the overall port unloading speed was better during the week, and the port inventory increased slightly under the influence of downstream rigid demand replenishment. At present, with the gradual easing of transport restrictions, freight prices in the region may fall, but the current downstream market demand is generally followed up. Under the influence of rigid demand, methanol market prices are expected to rise narrowly in the short term. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.