Methanol: Freight rates in some regions have dropped, and China's spot center of gravity continues to move downward

On December 19th, the methanol market price index was 2248.45, down 7.91 from yesterday, down 0.35% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 18:

China CFR 280,285USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 306.25-307.25 euros / ton, down 0.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 100,101cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 329,330US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2210-2230 (10), North Route: 1940-2000 (- 10), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: 2350-2375 (0), Shanxi: 2200-2300 (- 60), Port: 2415-2440 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 330-420 (0ram Muir 20), South Route-North Shandong 330-360 (0amp mer mer 20), Shanxi-North Shandong 140-180 (0amp mer mer 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-250 (- 10 Maple 0)

Spot market: methanol market prices are weak today, transport restrictions in some areas of the Chinese market have been slightly alleviated, and market freight prices have fallen somewhat, but at present, the recovery of downstream market demand is limited. Under the influence of the mood of buying up but not buying down, the enthusiasm of entering the market to replenish goods is general, and the overall trading atmosphere in the Chinese market is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have fallen in a narrow range, and the quotation on the southern line is around 2030-2050 yuan / ton. The quotation of the north line is around 1940-2000 yuan / ton. at present, the market is in the last week of the long pick-up period, and with the gradual relief of transportation, the supply of goods available in the market may increase. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell in a narrow range, with 2480 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2390-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Some manufacturers quoted prices for freight, but the willingness to receive goods downstream is still general. The market quotation in North China has been adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2390-2480 yuan / ton today. The road blockade has been gradually restored in the early stage, and the external sources of goods have flowed into the market normally, and the supply of negotiable goods in the market has increased, but the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish goods is general. The quotation in Shanxi fell in a narrow range and was stable to 2200-2300 yuan / ton today.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. Spot holding price sale, rigid demand procurement, Shengshui forward. Forward part of the high shipments, arbitrage to receive the goods, the basis is slightly weak. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 12: 2445-2450, base difference 05cm 70th 01cm 25th 12 deal: 2430-2440, base difference 05cm 50pm 51cm 10pm 13x 1 deal: 2435-2445, base spread 01m 15X 1 deal: 2435-2445, basis difference 05pm 60pm 01mm 15.

Future forecast: Chinese market: at present, the transportation restrictions in some areas of the Chinese market have been alleviated, and the freight market price has begun to fall, but it is still in a high position at present, and the market price is still suppressed to a certain extent in the short term. Some manufacturers give way to freight for shipment, and this week is the last week of long settlement. The supply of negotiable goods in the Chinese market may increase, and with the increase in supply, the mentality of some operators in the market may be weak. In addition, the current downstream market demand follow-up is limited, under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may continue to be weak operation, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.