Methanol: Transportation restrictions on local road sections ease the shock of local quotations in China and fall back

On December 18, the methanol market price index was 2256.36, down 21.31 from the previous working day, and 0.94% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 15:

China CFR 280,285USD / ton, down US $3.00 / tonne

European FOB 307-308 euros / ton, down 2.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 100,101cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 326-327 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2230 (0), North Route: 1950-2000 (- 70), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: 2350-2375 (- 30), Shanxi: 2260-2320 (0), Port: 2415-2430 (5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 330-450 (30ax 30), South Line-North Shandong 330-380 (0amp 10), Shanxi-North Shandong 140-200 (10max 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 210-250 (0max 10)

Spot market: today, the price shock in the methanol market has dropped, and the transportation restrictions in some regions of the Chinese market have been slightly alleviated. in some areas, the market quotation is to reduce the inventory pressure and reduce the price for shipment, but at present, the recovery of downstream market demand is limited. Under the influence of the mood of buying up but not buying down, the enthusiasm of entering the market is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has fallen in a narrow range, and the quotation on the southern line is around 2100 yuan / ton. The quotation of the north line revolves around 1950-2000 yuan / ton, and the enthusiasm of entering the market downstream is not high, and the market transaction volume is not good. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell in a narrow range, with 2480 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2410-2520 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, there is resistance to high prices in the lower reaches. On Monday, everyone has a strong wait-and-see mood and pay attention to tomorrow's market bidding. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2390-2450 yuan / ton today. The road blockade has been gradually restored in the early stage, and the external sources of goods have flowed into the market normally, and the supply of negotiable goods in the market has increased, but the demand in the downstream market is general. Most of the replenishment by operators is based on rigid demand. Shanxi region quotation arrangement is mainly, today the quotation is stable to 2260-2320 yuan / ton, the futures market is weak, the market sentiment is lack of confidence.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated widely today. Spot rigid demand negotiation, the basis is strong. The long-term unilateral is higher than the low, the basis is slightly weaker; the replacement continues in recent months. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 12: 2415-2440, base difference 01 "20 shock" 25 position 12 deal: 2410-2435, base difference 01 "15 05cm 55 bank transaction 60 position 1 transaction: 2415-2440, base difference 0120max" 23ju0560max "70.

Future forecast: Chinese market: manufacturers in Shanxi and some regions of Inner Mongolia have increased inventory pressure due to poor shipments in the early stage. at present, with the recovery of transport capacity, there is a certain demand for storage in the region. however, considering that the current freight price is still in a high position, and under the influence of the mood of buying up but not buying down, the enthusiasm of entering the market to replenish goods is not high, and the market turnover is limited. In the port market, at present, the main methanol contract has been changed to 2401 contracts, which has recently maintained a weak and volatile trend, and the rigid demand is mainly in the port spot market. At present, the operators in the field still have a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future, coupled with the high freight prices, which to a certain extent suppress the prices of manufacturers, and it is expected that the methanol market may continue to operate weakly in the short term. In the later stage, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.