Daily Review of Urea: Market trend is weak and prices are stable and slightly lower (December 18)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on December 18 was 2,506.95, a decrease of 9.09 from last Friday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.62%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2201, the highest price is 2203, the lowest price is 2132, the settlement price is 2161, and the closing price is 2182. The closing price is down 30% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.35% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2132-2203; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 264; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 2334 lots today, and so far, the position has been held by 138,100 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market continues to operate in a weak position, and prices continue to drop slightly. Currently, with relatively limited demand, the market atmosphere continues to decline.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,500 - 2,530 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,280 - 2,540 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,460 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,480 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,430 - 2,480 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,410 - 2,620 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,540 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell by 2,550 - 2,630 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, companies continue to ship orders received in advance in the early stage. Current shipments are affected by road transportation difficulties, and goods are shipped slowly. In terms of the market, there is insufficient follow-up on new orders in the market, actual transaction pressure is gradually increasing, and prices may continue to be loosened and adjusted downward. On the supply side, there are still positive results in the maintenance of air head equipment, supply is still expected to tighten, and production will continue to decline. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of demand in the market demand, and periodic reserve demand still exists. It is expected that the reserve task will be large at the beginning of next year. At the current state of weak sentiment, demand follow-up is limited, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

On the whole, the urea industry is currently having difficulties in transactions and the market trend is weak. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to be weak and gradually consolidate downward in the short term.