Methanol: The methanol period is now adjusting within a narrow range, and industry operators are still cautious

On December 15, the market price index of methanol was 2277.67, down 5.62 from yesterday and 0.25% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 14:

China CFR 283-284USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 309.25-310.25 euros / ton, down 5 euros / ton

Us FOB 100,101cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $323-324 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Route: 2020-2060 (0), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: 2380-2395 (10), Shanxi: 2260-2320 (0), Port: 2410-2420 (- 5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 300-410 (0max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 310-370 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-180 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: the price of methanol is adjusted in a narrow range today, affected by the recent snowfall in the market, limited transportation on some roads, increased supply pressure, manufacturers reduced prices and shipped more goods, and some enterprises in Inner Mongolia reduced prices to auction today. however, due to logistics and transportation difficulties, all failed auctions. At the same time, there are fewer runnable vehicles in the field, resulting in higher transportation costs and squeezing the price space of methanol to a certain extent. specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2100 yuan / ton. the quotation on the northern line revolves around 2000-2060 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm of entering the market downstream is not high, and the number of new orders in the market is limited. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is limited, with 2480 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2440-2460 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with parking and maintenance of devices in the region. in addition, due to the recent snowfall, freight prices have been raised, and downstream operators are generally enthusiastic about restocking in the market. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2390-2450 yuan / ton today. At present, the supply reduction is good for the market, and the manufacturers' price-raising mentality is strong, but the terminal demand is difficult to improve significantly, and the market transaction continues to be dominated by rigid demand. Shanxi area quotation arrangement is mainly, today's quotation is stable to 2260-2330 yuan / ton, downstream rigid demand transaction is mainly.

Port market: today, methanol futures volatility lower, the main contract has been moved to 05 contract, spot rigid demand negotiations; basis changes little, average transaction. Among them, Jiangsu market quotation around 2410-2420 yuan / ton, little change compared with yesterday, Ningbo quotation to 2470-2480 yuan / end, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the overall market trading atmosphere is limited.

Future forecast: recently, the Chinese market is affected by snowfall, transportation on some roads is limited, and it is relatively difficult for manufacturers in the main producing areas to get out. As a result, the market inventory pressure in the producing areas is increasing gradually, and some manufacturers give way to freight for shipment. However, due to the reduction of market transport vehicles, freight prices continue to rise, to a certain extent, reduce the profits of downstream enterprises, even if the enterprise prices have been reduced, but the overall transaction still does not improve. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light. At present, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers in the main producing areas still exists, and the prices in the producing areas may continue to be weak in the short term, while Shandong and Hebei are arranged at a high level under the support of low supply pressure, and it is expected that the methanol market may maintain interval consolidation in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.