Methanol: Port inventories have slightly accumulated, China continues regional trend

On December 13, the methanol market price index was 2287, down 4.31 from yesterday, down 0.17% from the previous month. .

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 12:

China CFR 287-290 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 314.25-315.25 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 101102cents / gallon, down $3 / ton

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $335-336 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Route: 2030-2060 (0), Lunan: 2480-2500 (20), Henan: 2360-2400 (0), Shanxi: 2260-2320 (- 20), Port: 24302455 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 300-390 (10ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 290-330 (0amp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-180 (0ram 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-240 (10max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price continues the regional trend, the futures market is low and volatile, and the mindset of the market operators is not good. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with quotations on the southern route around 2100-2120 yuan / ton, high-end drop of 20 yuan / ton, and the northern line around 2030-2060 yuan / ton, affected by snowfall in the north, road transport is blocked, the overall shipment of manufacturers is not smooth, and enterprise quotations are more favorable to freight, but the willingness to receive goods downstream is still general. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is limited, with 2480-2500 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2440-2460 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The equipment in the region is parked and overhauled. In addition, due to the recent snowfall and the increase in freight prices, downstream operators are generally enthusiastic about restocking in the market. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2370-2450 yuan / ton today. Due to the surrounding snowfall, the spot resources of methanol in Hebei area have tightened. In addition, there is no pressure on the inventory of manufacturers at present. Under the support of low warehouses, the mentality of enterprises is strong, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is good. The quotation in Shanxi has dropped narrowly. At present, the enterprise inventory is low, and the mentality of the manufacturer is OK, but the downstream methanol delivery capacity is limited, and there is still resistance to the high price.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated lower today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; forward arbitrage shipments are active, futures fell after the low buying increased, multi-contract opportunities to close, the basis stabilized. The idea of replacement continues, and the deal is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2415-2445, base difference 01 "7 prime" 10 position 12 transaction: 2415-2435, base difference 01 "7 prime 10 position 12 transaction: 2415-2450, base difference 01" 7 prime 10 transaction 1 transaction: 2425-2460, basis 01 "17pin" 205x 55.

Future forecast: in the near future, the regional trend of the Chinese market is obvious, affected by the snowfall weather, the transportation of some roads is limited, the circulation of goods in the main producing areas is limited, and some manufacturers in the main producing areas sell goods at reduced prices, but the market transaction atmosphere is general. On the other hand, the consumer market operates at a high level under the influence of little supply pressure and higher freight prices, coupled with the recent parking of many sets of air head devices in southwest China, which forms a certain support for regional prices under the influence of reduced supply. Overall, it is expected that the short-term methanol market may continue the regional trend, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.