PVC: The middle-track winding sideways state of futures continues, multiple prices increase, and spot prices are flexibly adjusted

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December 13, 2023, 4:42 PM

PVC futures analysis: December 13th V2401 contract opening price: 5860, highest price: 5885, lowest price: 5804, position: 465251, settlement price: 5849, yesterday settlement: 5831, up: 18, daily trading volume: 575335 lots, precipitated capital: 1.902 billion, capital outflow: 159 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.12	Price 12.13	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5610-5670	5610-5650	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5700-5780	5730-5790	30/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5780-5830	5800-5840	20/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5700	5550-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5690-5710	5690-5710	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5680	5550-5630	0/-50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to adjust slightly, some areas offer slightly higher. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 10-30 yuan / ton in East China, 10-20 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast and Central China, and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises some enterprises continue to wait and see, promoting a generation of contracts to digest inventory, individual enterprises slightly increase 50 yuan / ton, some ethylene enterprises reduce 50 yuan / ton, showing a rising and falling trend. Futures slightly stronger consolidation, the spot market traders in all regions of the price offer part of the slightly higher than yesterday, and coexist with the point price offer, the basis changes little, of which East China basis offer 05 contract-(210-260-320), South China 05 contract-(150-180), North 05 contract-(530), Southwest 05 contract-(260). The purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches of the spot market is low, although the two quotations are not good, and there is room for negotiation in part of the price negotiations, and the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night market narrow arrangement, the overall price trend is slightly weaker but not a big decline. Futures prices rose slightly after the start of morning trading, but the upper pressure was relatively obvious, and then the downside nearly fell below the 5800 mark, and the afternoon low continued to fluctuate. 2401 contracts range from 5804 to 5885 throughout the day, with a spread of 81. 01. The contract reduced its position by 36414 hands and has held 465251 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 5983, with 446444 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices continue to reduce positions, with the passage of time to change positions gradually advance, 05 contract positions climbed 01 contract positions decreased significantly. 05 contract transactions increase positions open 25.1% compared with more than 23.7%, short positions temporarily better. The trend of the two contracts is similar, both weakening slightly in the afternoon. 01 contract more flat, short positions caused by a slight rebound in the price is good for the long, so today's 01 contract more flat 26.7% vs. 24.3%. We still believe that the market for changing positions for months is cautiously involved, and the futures price fluctuations caused by departure can not be determined as changes in spot market factors. On the whole, the operation of the futures price is still wrapped around the middle rail, and the short-term trend is difficult to change. We continue to maintain the previous point of view that there is an obvious pressure position 01 contract 5900 direction 05 contract 6050 direction above the operation of the futures price.

Spot: first move positions to change the market away from the place, the fundamentals of the current factors can not be formed to guide, and the impact of the trend of the disk on the spot market is also insufficient, according to business feedback there is still great pressure on the digestion of the spot. Although some production enterprises report that there is no inventory pressure in the factory area, the actual weak demand port more restricts the upward price. At present, we are facing the change of main contracts in December, and there are 48111 warehouse receipts registered so far, equivalent to a total of 240555 tons of PVC on the spot, with delivery of materials or showing a trend of volume release. At present, delivery is gradually completed and another sales mode of spot digestion is expected to be strengthened again. At present, the fundamentals of PVC are temporarily stable, and there are no obvious variable factors. The weak fundamentals caused by the game of supply and demand still restrict the operating highs of the two cities. As a whole, the mode of narrow adjustment of the spot market remains unchanged in the short term, waiting for new factors to break the situation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.12	Price 12.13	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5870	5841	-29
	Average spot price in East China	5740	5760	20
	Average spot price in South China	5805	5820	15
	PVC2401 basis difference	-130	-81	49
	V2405 collection	6029	5983	-46
	V2401-2405 closed	-159	-142	17
	PP2401 collection	7507	7448	-59
	Plastic L2401 collection	8068	8032	-36
	V--PP basis difference	-1637	-1607	30
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2198	-2191	7

China PVC Index: according to Tuduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 4.97, or 0.087%, to 5715.42 on December 13. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5981.18, down 29.82, with a range of 0.496%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 265.76.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.12 warehouse orders	12.13 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,892	1,892	0
	Guangzhou materials	850	850	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,042	1,042	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	549	584	35
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	549	584	35
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,006	4,806	800
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,813	2,813	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,967	2,967	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,840	18,215	2,375
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,457	3,457	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	360	470	110
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	487	487	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		44,791	48,111	3,320
Total		44,791	48,111	3,320