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Caustic soda: Futures prices fell slightly, upward pressure levels worked, and the spot market was mixed

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December 13, 2023, 4:14 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    December 13 SH2405 contract opening price: 2677, highest price: 2691, lowest price: 2636, spread: 55, position: 53622, reduced position: 4006, settlement price: 2666, yesterday settlement: 2678, down: 12, closing price: 2660, daily trading volume: 90250 hands, precipitated capital: 1.027 billion, capital outflow: 85.04 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

December twelfth

December thirteenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-784

736-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

760-840

760-840

0/0

-

Hebei

770-840

780-840

10/0

Ex-factory price

South China

910-1050

910-1050

0/0

Can price

Shandong

730-850

730-830

0/-20

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

980-1060

980-1060

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

760-860

760-860

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2430-2450

2400-2450

-30/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

820-860

820-860

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2800-3000

2800-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1200-1330

1200-1330

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1310-1330

1310-1330

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1200-1250

1200-1250

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2550-2600

2550-2600

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3000-3200

-100/-100

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2800-2950

2800-3000

0/50

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3650

3500-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-960

870-930

-30/-30

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3000-3200

3000-3200

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      caustic soda market trend is slightly different today, local price adjustment, showing a rising and falling trend, market trading situation shows a lukewarm situation, individual regional market supply and demand situation has changed slightly, affecting the local market trend. Today, the price of liquid alkali varies, and the market trend is different to a certain extent. The price in most areas is stable, but there is no obvious adjustment, and the price in a few areas has changed slightly. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali has dropped by 20-30 yuan / ton, individual price has increased by 10 yuan / ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali price has dropped 100 yuan / ton in some areas, and 30% ionic membrane alkali has dropped 30 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range was not significantly adjusted. The center of gravity of the market transaction price in individual areas moved slightly upward, mainly due to the increase in the load of the local high concentration alkali plant, the increase in the consumption of low concentration alkali, and the reduction of load production by the low concentration alkali plant of enterprises, and the supply of goods on the market decreased, which is favorable to the price in this region; the price decline in some areas is mainly affected by poor downstream receiving conditions. The performance of the market in other areas is stable, most of the devices start normally, the downstream demand maintains rigid demand procurement, the market transaction atmosphere is general, most of them maintain the previous level, and the supply and demand side does not change much. there are no obvious factors affecting the market trend in the market, and there is no obvious change in the transaction price center for the time being. Upstream production enterprises a small number of manufacturers lowered ex-factory quotations, most manufacturers stable prices wait and see, the state of mind is relatively cautious. Today, the market transaction price center of gravity in some areas of the tablet alkali market has moved slightly upward, and the market in most areas is operating steadily, mainly waiting for the market, and the downstream receiving situation is stable, maintaining the lukewarm situation. The snowfall weather has a certain impact on transportation, the arrival of goods is different, and the supply of goods in some areas is relatively tight. The ex-factory quotations of manufacturers in Northwest China have been slightly raised, and the start-up of most devices is stable.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract showed a downward trend, after the opening of night trading, the futures price slightly rose to the intraday high 2691 and then began to fluctuate, and fell obviously in the last session, and showed a downward trend again after a small rise in early trading. The afternoon price rebounded, but when the power was insufficient, it went down again. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2636-2691 throughout the day, with a price difference of 55%. The position in the contract was reduced by 4006 hands, and so far it has held 53622 positions.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 2724.8 on December 13, up 2.21%, or 0.081%. China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: the futures price of caustic soda SH2405 contract has fallen somewhat today, and in terms of trading volume, 14.9% more than empty 15.2%, empty 16.5% versus Duoping 22.3%. The futures price failed to continue to rise after Sanlianyang, and the upper-track pressure level worked. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) continues upward, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a golden fork trend. Short-term caustic soda SH2405 contracts focus on the performance of the range 2625-2700.

Spot: at present, there are regional differences in the supply side of the liquid alkali market, the start-up of the plant in most areas is stable, the temporary load reduction occurs in a few units, the recovery time is to be determined, and the supply side has different positive and negative effects on each regional market. the overall downstream demand almost maintains a weak and stable trend, showing a trend of rigid demand procurement, the mentality of operators in most areas is relatively cautious, and it is expected that the short-term liquid alkali market as a whole or maintain weak and stable operation. Prices in individual regions may show an upward trend under the support of the supply side. The northern part of the tablet alkali market is affected by the snowfall weather, the transportation efficiency of the source of goods is reduced, the transport speed slows down, some piece alkali devices are overhauled, the recent recovery is expected, the downstream demand remains stable and stable, and it is expected that the tablet alkali market may move steadily in the short term.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

December twelfth

December thirteenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

1-200

1-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

100-300

100-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

1-100

1-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

50-200

50-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

100-300

100-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on December 13, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 256.78, down 0, with a range of 0%. China's liquid chlorine index is stable.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: