Daily Review of Urea: Prices for new orders in the southern region have increased slightly (December 13)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on December 13 was 2,519.23, an increase of 2.73 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.87%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2290, the highest price is 2301, the lowest price is 2242, the settlement price is 2270, and the closing price is 2250. The closing price is down 29 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.27% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2242-2301; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong region is 210; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 3371 lots today, and so far, it has held 138,200 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea prices increased within a narrow range. Most of the areas where the increase was concentrated in East China. Some regions received better orders, market transactions increased, and prices were slightly increased, but the overall upward trend was small.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,500 - 2,530 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,330 - 2,540 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,460 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,480 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,460 - 2,510 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, while the price of large particles has dropped to 2,560 - 2,660 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,590 - 2,640 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most factories continue to implement pre-payment in advance. Currently, some large factories have received good low-end quotations, and the number of new orders has increased, and factories have successively increased their ex-factory quotations. In terms of the market, today's market atmosphere is hotter than in the previous period. The trading confidence of operators has been boosted, and the overall atmosphere has warmed up. On the supply side, urea market supply is still expected to decrease. In terms of inventory, the inventory of Chinese urea companies increased this week. Most of the companies are concentrated in the northern region. Most factories in the northern region are affected by inconvenient transportation in rainy and snowy days. Shipping is slow and inventory increases. However, the overall inventory is still lower than the same period last year. Currently, the accumulation of enterprises is still in the process of slowly proceeding. On the demand side, the winter storage time is approaching, and downstream intentions to make up orders have increased. Today, there is a lot of increase in bargain hunting purchases and purchases in the market, but the wait-and-see attitude remains unchanged.

On the whole, the current price changes in the urea industry are mostly affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand. Today, the demand for goods in the market appears. It is expected that the urea market price will be stable and adjusted in a short period of time with the downstream trading atmosphere.