PVC: Futures rose late, positions were shifted to the moon, registered warehouse receipts exceeded the previous period, and the spot market improved slightly

PVC futures analysis: December 12 V2401 contract opening price: 5830, highest price: 5876, lowest price: 5797, position: 501665, settlement price: 5831, yesterday settlement: 5830, up: 1, daily trading volume: 490172 lots, precipitated capital: 2.061 billion, capital outflow: 181 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 12.11	Price 12.12	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5610-5650	5610-5670	0/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5680-5760	5700-5780	20/20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5780-5820	5780-5830	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5700	5550-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5690-5710	5690-5710	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5680	5550-5680	0/0	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to narrow collation, afternoon spot market prices rose slightly. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises continue to be stable, there is no obvious willingness to adjust, and the first generation of contracts are mainly based on basic quantity. The daily price of futures rose during the day, and the quotation of traders was higher than that of yesterday, especially in the afternoon, the spot low price decreased, but some of them had a small negotiation. The basis has not changed much, and there is no price advantage for the point price supply after the futures price has gone up at present. Among them, East China basis offer 05 contract-(210-270-320), South China 05 contract-(150-180), North 05 contract-(530), Southwest 05 contract-(260). Looking at the overall price and point price transactions are not good, trading has weakened, downstream early replenishment, today's purchase intention is weak.

 

Futures point of view:   PVC2401 contract night trading after a narrow range of shocks, slightly weaker but the overall decline is not big. Early trading began late prices began to rise from the low, there was a good small pace upward trend, in the afternoon in the relatively high level to the end. 2401 contracts range from 5797 to 5876 throughout the day, with a spread of 79. 01. The contract reduced its positions by 47718 positions and has held 501665 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6029, with 423544 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures:   PVC2401 contract price shows a good upward trend during the daytime. The market continued to show the withdrawal of positions, and the change of positions was gradually advanced, of which Duoping was 25.3% higher than that of 27.4% out of thin air, and the increase in air leveling also contributed to the slight rise in futures prices to a certain extent. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks began to gradually turn upward, the daily KD line and MACD line showed a golden fork trend, but the market of reducing positions and leaving market is lack of certain reference. In addition, the overall commodity sentiment is more consistent, closing at noon, the main contracts of Chinese futures rose more and fell less. On the whole, in the short term, we still maintain our previous judgment and continue to observe the pressure performance in the direction of 01 contract 5900 and 05 contract 6050.

 

Spot:   PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices have risen slightly recently, calcium carbide PVC cost port has some support, but from the supply and demand level, PVC current plant load is still high, supply is relatively loose in the face of weak demand, resulting in the fourth quarter gradually accumulating, more restricting the current two cities' upward highs. From the futures market can also see the lack of rebound strength, as well as the spot market in the face of sales pressure transfer of 05 contract hedging policies. Secondly, there is a lack of guidance in the market caused by the change of positions, and the market is unstable due to the departure of positions, so the spot market also shows a certain lag. In the outer disk, the price of the international crude oil futures market rose slightly and investor sentiment improved, but it was still cautious about the prospect of production cuts and global oil demand from OPEC+ members, limiting the increase in oil prices. At present, there is no clear guidance on the policy news port, as a whole, the spot market may continue to be narrowly arranged in the short term.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 12.11	Price 12.12	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5830	5870	40
	Average spot price in East China	5720	5740	20
	Average spot price in South China	5800	5805	5
	PVC2401 basis difference	-110	-130	-20
	V2405 collection	6007	6029	22
	V2401-2405 closed	-177	-159	18
	PP2401 collection	7484	7507	23
	Plastic L2401 collection	8018	8068	50
	V--PP basis difference	-1654	-1637	17
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2188	-2198	-10

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tudou data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index rose 9.14, or 0.16%, to 5710.45 on December 12. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6011, up 1.55, the range is 0.026%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 300.55.

 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	12.11 warehouse orders	12.12 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,892	1,892	0
	Guangzhou materials	850	850	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,042	1,042	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	549	549	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	549	549	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,006	4,006	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,843	2,813	-30
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,809	2,967	158
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,250	15,840	590
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,457	3,457	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,322	3,322	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	487	487	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		44,073	44,791	718
Total		44,073	44,791	718

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

 

The information provided in this report is for reference only.