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Caustic soda: Futures prices showed a trend of three consecutive positive days, with high points hitting the upper track, and spot prices continued to fall

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December 12, 2023, 4:09 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    December 12 SH2405 contract opening price: 2647, highest price: 2709, lowest price: 2632, spread: 77, position: 57628, increase: 1336, settlement price: 2678, yesterday settlement: 2644, up: 34, closing price: 2680, daily trading volume: 146219 hands, precipitated capital: 1.112 billion, capital inflow: 37.53 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

December eleventh

December twelfth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-784

736-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

760-840

760-840

0/0

-

Hebei

770-840

770-840

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

930-1050

910-1050

-20/0

Can price

Shandong

730-860

730-850

0/-10

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

980-1060

980-1060

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

760-860

760-860

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2500-2550

2430-2450

-70/-100

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

820-860

820-860

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2800-3000

2800-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1210-1330

1200-1330

-10/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1310-1330

1310-1330

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1210-1270

1200-1250

-10/-20

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2600-2800

2550-2600

-50/-200

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2800-2950

2800-2950

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3650

3500-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1270-1350

1270-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-960

900-960

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3000-3200

3000-3200

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      caustic soda market today to maintain a weak operation, market prices fell, the overall supply in the market is relatively sufficient, most areas downstream maintain tepid trend, individual performance is weak, the market is still dominated by negative factors. Today, the liquid alkali market continues to show a regional downward trend, the market transaction atmosphere is mediocre, and the market transaction prices in some areas continue to move downward. from the perspective of regional market price adjustment, 32% of ionic membrane alkali prices fell by 10-100 yuan / ton, 50% ion-exchange membrane alkali prices fell by 10-200 yuan / ton, and other concentration alkali prices remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The performance of the supply end of high concentration alkali in some areas is sufficient, but the market transaction is general, and the merchants reduce the shipping price to promote the transaction; the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream in some areas is poor, and the overall performance of the demand side is weak, coupled with the influence of the weak operation of the market in the surrounding areas, the price center of gravity of the local market also moves down mainly. The performance of the market in other areas is stable, most of the devices start normally, the downstream demand maintains rigid demand procurement, the market transaction atmosphere is general, most of them maintain the previous level, and the supply and demand side does not change much. there are no obvious factors affecting the market trend in the market, and there is no obvious change in the transaction price center for the time being. Upstream production enterprises lower factory quotations in some areas, local manufacturers wait and see to stabilize prices, and the mentality is relatively cautious. Today, the overall trend of the tablet alkali market is relatively stable, most of the equipment of various manufacturers maintain a stable situation, individual devices are overhauled, the pre-sale of enterprises is normal, and most manufacturers have not announced new quotations for the time being; market prices in various regions have not changed much at present. According to the reaction of traders, market transaction prices in a few areas have moved down, and most merchants have maintained a lukewarm situation in shipments.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to show an upward trend, night trading price fell slightly to today's low 2632 began to rebound, late trading shock, early trading surface accounted for when a small downside, afternoon prices rose again, to today's highest point after the end of the day fell. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2632-2709 throughout the day, with a price gap of 77 and a position of 1336 hands, with a position of 57628 hands so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, on December 12, China's caustic soda index was 2722.59, down 9.26, or 0.339%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to rise, the market slightly increased positions, from last Friday to today, the futures price showed a three-positive trend, the overall operation is strong. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) continues to rise, but the trend of the lower track slows down, the KD line and MACD line at the daily level show a golden fork trend, and the high price reaches the upper track position. Caustic soda SH2405 contract price operation above the pressure, short-term test on the track position.

Spot aspect: the supply and demand situation in some areas of the liquid alkali market almost maintains the previous level of operation, the supply and demand situation in some areas is weak, the inventory of enterprises in some areas has increased, and the downstream industries almost maintain a lukewarm situation. Multi-rigid demand procurement is mainly, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, the negative interest in the market is relatively obvious, the local market still has a downward trend, it is expected that the short-term liquid alkali market still shows a regional downward trend. The production of most devices in the tablet alkali market is normal, individual devices are overhauled, most of the price of tablet alkali in the northwest region is stable, and the downstream is also dominated by rigid demand procurement, the pre-sale of enterprises is normal, the inventory pressure is not great, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the short-term tablet alkali market or finishing.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

December eleventh

December twelfth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

1-200

-199/-200

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

300-500

100-300

-200/-200

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

150-200

1-100

-149/-100

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

50-200

50-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-500

100-300

-200/-200

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on December 12, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 256.78, down 83.22, or 24.48%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: