Methanol: Quotes in China's limited circulation supply areas have been increased

On December 11, the methanol market price index was 2288.33, up 3.64 from the previous working day and 0.16% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 8:

China CFR 288-292 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 314.25-315.25 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 107-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 337-338 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (- 40), North Route: 2030-2100 (0), Lunan: 2460 (40), Henan: 2370-2435 (30), Shanxi: 2280-2330 (0), Port: 2420-2445 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 280-360 (20thumb 30), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-310 (0hammer 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-170 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-200 (0max 10)

 

Spot market: today, methanol market prices continue to fluctuate mainly, parking maintenance is installed in some areas of China, coupled with the influence of snow, limited transportation, tight circulation of goods in the region, and reduced market supply. To a certain extent, support the mentality of the industry. Specifically, the fluctuation of the market quotation in the northwest region is limited, with 2100-2120 yuan / ton for the south line and 2030-2100 yuan / ton for the north line. The recent snowfall in some parts of China has led to transportation disruption, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and some manufacturers may give way to freight. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been raised, with 2460 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2460-2480 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a low-end increase of 40 yuan / ton, parking and maintenance of devices in the region, and an increase in freight prices due to the recent snowfall weather. This has led to an increase in prices in northern Shandong, but the follow-up of downstream demand is limited, and some operators still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2350-2370 yuan / ton today. Due to the surrounding snowfall, the spot resources of methanol in Hebei area have tightened. In addition, there is no pressure on manufacturers' current inventory control, and enterprises have a strong price-up mentality under the support of low warehouses. The quotation in Shanxi region is running steadily, and at present, there is no obvious increase in the downstream market demand, and some operators are gradually becoming more cautious about the wait-and-see mood of the future, and they are more cautious about restocking in the market.

 

Port market: methanol futures fell in a narrow range today. Spot on-demand procurement; long-term multi-contract arbitrage delivery, unilateral bargain-hunting, stable basis; frequent exchange of goods near and far. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2420-2435, base difference 01: 5cross 12, deal: 2425-2445, base difference 01pm: 0510, transaction price: 2430-2450, base difference: 01p15, & nbsp 2435-2460, the base difference is 01x 23max, 25pr 0555max 58.

Area	2023/12/11	2023/12/8	Rise and fall
The whole country	2288.33	2284.69	3.64
Northwest	2030-2260	2030-2260	0/0
North China	2280-2370	2280-2370	0/0
East China	2420-2530	2455-2520	-35/10
South China	2430-2500	2440-2520	-10/-20
Southwest	2390-2650	2390-2650	0/0
Northeast China	2350-2380	2350-2380	0/0
Shandong	2460-2480	2420-2440	40/40
Central China	2370-2620	2340-2620	30/0

Future forecast: there are many equipment parking and overhauling in the Chinese market in the near future. Chongqing Cabelle 850000 ton methanol plant was stopped for overhaul on December 11 and is expected to restart in mid-late January; Shandong Hualu 1 million plant is stopped for overhauling and 500000 plant is opened, expected to take about 10 days. The 2 million-ton plant of Jiutai (Tuoxian) plans to stop short from December 12. it is expected to last about 2 days, and the supply in the region has been reduced. In addition, recently, affected by a large area of snow, the circulation of goods in the field is limited, and the supply pressure in the region is not great. The manufacturer's price-raising mentality is obvious, but considering that the follow-up of the terminal downstream demand is limited at present, and the shipment in the main producing area may be blocked due to limited transportation. Some manufacturers offer or give way to freight. Overall, it is expected that the short-term methanol market may continue the regional trend, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the on-site transportation and downstream demand follow-up.