Methanol: The current range of methanol period fluctuates, and the wait-and-see attitude of industry still exists

On December 8, the methanol market price index was 2284.69, up 0.75 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 7:

China CFR 290-293 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 314.25-315.25 euros / ton, down 34.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 107-105 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $338-339 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2240-2260 (0), North Route: 2030-2100 (- 10), Lunan: 2420 (0), Henan: 2340-2370 (20), Shanxi: 2280-2330 (0), Port: 2445-2450 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 260-330 (20thumb 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-300 (0ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-170 (10ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-230 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices continue to fluctuate mainly, although the futures market rose in a narrow range, but the fluctuation is small, the role of boosting the mentality of market operators is limited, coupled with the current limited downstream demand release, the market turnover is not good. Specifically, the fluctuation of the market quotation in the northwest region is limited, with 2100-2120 yuan / ton in the south line and 2030-2100 yuan / ton in the north line. At present, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers is not great, but the downstream receiving capacity of high-priced methanol is limited, and the market atmosphere is light. Shandong, the main consumer area, has a narrow adjustment, with 2420 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2420-2440 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. There is no obvious increase in downstream market demand, poor fundamental support and general market transaction atmosphere. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2350-2370 yuan / ton today, the low end is raised by 50 yuan / ton, and the futures market is warming up today. coupled with the fact that the inventory of manufacturers in Hebei is mostly in the middle and low level, enterprises have a strong price-up mentality under the support of low warehouses. The quotation in Shanxi has dropped narrowly. At present, there is no obvious increase in the demand in the downstream market, and some operators have a growing wait-and-see mood towards the future. They are more cautious about restocking in the market, and the market turnover is limited.

Today, methanol futures are slightly more volatile. Spot a small amount of rigid demand; paper part of the high shipments, arbitrage buying cautious, the basis to hold slightly weaker. The overall turnover is light. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2445-2450, base spread 01: 5cross 12: 2450-2460, base difference 01: 8pm 10: 12 transaction: 2445-2465, base difference 01: 15amp 18cross: 2450-2465, base difference 01: 20max 23.

Future forecast: with the steady progress of the gas restriction policy, many sets of air head devices have been stopped as scheduled, and Lutianhua, Chuanwei Chemical, Gansu Liuhua, Jiangyou Wanli and other devices have been gradually stopped. in the later period, 500000 tons of Jiuyuan Chemical, 850000 tons of Cabelle and 200000 tons of Wanhua are all planned to stop for maintenance around mid-December, and the supply in the area may continue to decrease, coupled with the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the market is not great, and there is still some support on the supply side in the short term, but the performance of the terminal downstream demand is general, the demand is difficult to have obvious volume in the short term, and some olefin units have negative operation, and the overall performance of the demand side is poor. On the whole, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue the regional trend, and in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the operation of the air head plant in southwest China and the follow-up of downstream demand.