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Caustic soda: Futures prices have risen sharply by nearly 200 points, technical levels have opened upwards again, and spot prices have been lowered individually.

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December 8, 2023, 4:03 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    December 8 SH2405 contract opening price: 2567, the highest price: 2745, the lowest price: 2551, the spread: 194, the position: 56801, the increase: 5397, the settlement price: 2661, yesterday's settlement: 2555, up: 106, closing price: 2642, daily trading volume: 259877 hands, precipitated capital: 1.08 billion, capital inflow: 132 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

December seventh

December eighth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-784

736-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

760-880

760-880

0/0

-

Hebei

790-880

790-880

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

930-1100

930-1050

0/-50

Can price

Shandong

730-860

730-860

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

980-1060

980-1060

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

780-860

780-860

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2550-2570

2550-2570

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

820-860

820-860

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2800-3000

2800-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1280-1380

1280-1380

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1380-1390

1380-1390

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1260-1330

1260-1330

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2600-2800

2600-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2800-2950

2800-2950

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3650

3500-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1300-1380

1300-1380

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

900-960

900-960

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3000-3200

3000-3200

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      today's caustic soda market as a whole shows a stable trend of operation, prices are stable and small movements, individual regional market transaction price center of gravity slightly moved down, the mentality of most areas is relatively cautious, near the end of the week, more operators wait and see the market. Today, the price of liquid alkali has fallen in some areas, and the market in most regions has been stable. Judging from the price adjustment in various regions, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali has individually dropped by 50 yuan per ton, while the prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The market turnover in South China is poor, the downstream demand performance is lacklustre, the enterprise shipment situation is not ideal, the merchant mentality is relatively cautious, and the market transaction price center of gravity moves down mainly. The performance of the market in most other areas is stable, most of the installations start normally, the downstream demand maintains rigid demand procurement, the market transaction atmosphere is general, most of them maintain the previous level, the supply and demand side changes little, and the operation is relatively mild. there are no obvious factors affecting the market trend in the market, and the barycenter of transaction price has not changed significantly for the time being. Upstream production enterprises are also price-stable wait-and-see, the mentality of the performance is relatively cautious. Today, the tablet alkali market is operating steadily, and the ex-factory quotations and market transaction prices in various regions have not changed significantly. The overall plant start-up of the factory is stable, the enterprise inventory pressure is small, the supply does not change much, the downstream demand performance is lukewarm, the transaction situation of each regional market is relatively flexible, near the weekend, the market is mainly arranged and operated.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract night trading small concussion operation, early trading after the opening of the futures price is more obvious, rose more than 100 points to 2745, the late trading fell slightly, afternoon prices continue to shock operation. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2551-2745 throughout the day, with a spread of 194 and 05 contracts with an increase of 5397 positions and 56801 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, on December 8, China's caustic soda index was 2761.4, down 1.31, or 0.047%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: the futures price of caustic soda SH2405 contract rises obviously, the intraday fluctuation is 194 points, and the obvious upside of the futures price makes obvious changes in the technical level. the technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) changes upward, the KD line of the daily line crosses, the MACD line shows a golden fork trend again, and the high price breaks through the upper track and appears a phased high point. At present, the futures price repeatedly tests the low range, the shadow line of the futures price is longer, and the short-term market may continue to test the low range.

Spot aspect: near the weekend, the market mentality of each region is more cautious, most prices maintain yesterday's level operation, at present, the supply end of the caustic soda market is basically stable, most of the production enterprises are operating normally, and the overall performance of the supply side is stable. There is also no obvious change in the start-up of downstream enterprise installations, and most of them maintain rigid demand procurement. At present, the overall performance of supply and demand is relatively stable, there is no clear guidance to the market trend, and most of them hold a wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the short-term market trend of caustic soda may be adjusted flexibly.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

December seventh

December eighth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-300

100-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

250-400

200-400

-50/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-150

50-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

150-250

50-200

-100/-50

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on December 8, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 301.11, down 5.56, or 1.81%, and China's liquid chlorine index was lowered.