Daily review of urea: Market inquiries increased, prices increased slightly upward (December 6)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on December 6 was 2,525.59, up 7.27 from yesterday, up 0.29% month-on-month, and down 9.70% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2387, the highest price is 2462, the lowest price is 2375, the settlement price is 2417, and the closing price is 2432. The closing price is 52 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.18% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2375-2462; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 38; the 01 contract has increased its position by 424 lots today, and so far, it has held 140240 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea prices continue to increase slightly. Recently, agricultural demand replenishment companies have been actively soliciting orders. Most manufacturers have received better orders, and prices have been slightly upward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,500 - 2,530 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,350 - 2,540 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,500 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,480 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,450 - 2,500 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,580 - 2,660 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,620 - 2,660 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most factories currently have good orders and new orders have been sold. With the support of manufacturers, they have a strong attitude towards prices. In terms of the market, the market is actively soliciting goods. Under the expectation of a reduction in supply, more purchases are entered into the market in advance. The market trading atmosphere is active and prices are rising. However, with the support of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the price increase is relatively limited. On the supply side, gas companies will gradually stop their operations this month, and a few coal companies also have maintenance plans. Nissan is expected to gradually decline, lower than the current level. On the demand side, the number of agricultural inquiries in the market has increased recently. Although demand is relatively concentrated, the overall market trading atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period, and the atmosphere is hot. With the release of terminal demand in the next January, it is expected that the market trading atmosphere will continue to be good.

On the whole, the current transaction of new orders in the urea market is relatively good. Under the expectation of a reduction in supply in the future, more operators enter the market to inquire about orders, and the market atmosphere is good. However, with the support of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, prices are under upward pressure, and it is expected that the urea market price will be slightly adjusted in a short period of time.