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Caustic soda: Futures prices fluctuated slightly, market positions were lightened, and spot prices fell

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December 5, 2023, 4:56 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    December 5 SH2405 contract opening price: 2613, highest price: 2613, lowest price: 2568, spread: 45, position: 46487, reduction: 1242, settlement price: 2587, yesterday settlement: 2645, down: 58, closing price: 2575, daily trading volume: 72694 hands, precipitated capital: 862 million, capital outflow: 38.15 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

December fourth

December fifth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-784

736-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

780-890

780-890

0/0

-

Hebei

820-920

820-900

0/-20

Ex-factory price

South China

940-1150

930-1100

-10/-50

Can price

Shandong

730-950

730-950

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1020-1080

1030-1060

10/-20

-

Jiangsu Province

820-880

780-860

-40/-20

Delivery price

Tianjin

2550-2650

2550-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-880

820-860

-10/-20

Ex-factory price

Henan

2800-3000

2800-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1300-1380

1290-1380

-10/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1410-1430

1400-1410

-10/-20

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1300-1350

1280-1350

-20/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2600-2800

2600-2800

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3300

3100-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2850-3000

2800-3000

-50/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3650

3500-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1320-1380

1300-1380

-20/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

930-990

900-960

-30/-30

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3000-3200

3000-3200

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      caustic soda market today shows a downward trend in most areas, some areas maintain a wait-and-see mentality, the trading atmosphere is general, market sentiment is weak, and the prices of liquid caustic soda and tablets are mainly falling. Today, the supply of low-priced goods in the liquid alkali market has increased, the center of gravity of market transactions in most regions has moved down, and the market trading atmosphere is general and showing regional differences. from the perspective of regional market price adjustment, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali fell by 10-50 yuan / ton, 50% ion-exchange membrane alkali by 10-20 yuan / ton, 49% ion-exchange membrane alkali by 20 yuan / ton and 30% ion-exchange membrane alkali by 30 yuan / ton The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range was not significantly adjusted. First of all, the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream in some areas is poor, and the ex-factory quotations of some enterprises are relatively high, so the price reduction is mainly to promote shipments; the load of some high concentration alkali price devices has increased, and the increase in supply is bad for the market, and the market transaction price center of gravity has shifted downwards; the performance of enterprises in individual areas is not satisfactory, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is poor, and the local market price is declining. The market transaction atmosphere in other areas is general, mostly maintain the previous level, the supply and demand side changes little, and the operation is relatively mild, there are no obvious factors affecting the market trend in the market, and there is no obvious change in the transaction price center for the time being. Some of the upstream production enterprises have lowered their ex-factory quotations, and most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize prices. Today, the price of tablet alkali market has declined, the market transaction is more flexible, the quotation of manufacturers has been mainly reduced, and the price center of gravity of market transaction in most areas has moved down to varying degrees, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. Production enterprises have individual factory equipment load reduction operation, enterprise pre-sale situation is normal, downstream receiving enthusiasm is not good, price reduction in some areas to promote delivery, individual regional market to maintain a stable trend, the state of mind is relatively cautious.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract today narrow concussion finishing operation, night trading opened that is the highest price, after the opening price down throughout the day to maintain the concussion trend, did not see a large operational market. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2568-2613 throughout the day, with a price difference of 45 minus 05 contracts with a reduction of 1242 positions and 46487 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, on December 5, China's caustic soda index was 2803.84, down 15.79, or 0.56%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract today did not see a large operable market, mainly small fluctuations throughout the day. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) shows a downward trend, the KD line at the daily line level shows a dead fork, and the MACD line shows a golden fork, but the two lines tend to intersect. The futures price runs between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger belt today, with a little support below, and the operation of short-term futures may maintain a volatile trend.

Spot aspect: caustic soda market is currently lack of good news stimulation, prices in most areas have fallen mainly today, and the fundamental reason for the market downturn is weak fundamentals. From the point of view of the industry chain, when the demand is weak, most merchants report that the shipping situation is poor, and their ability to digest orders is limited, and the start-up of most enterprises in the liquid alkali market is stable, and the maintenance plan has not been announced. the overall performance of the supply side is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is reduced regionally, which is obviously bad for the market, and the short-term liquid alkali market or most areas remain stable. Prices fell mainly in some areas. In the tablet alkali market, the start-up of most enterprise installations is stable, individual manufacturers have the phenomenon of load reduction, the downstream demand is mainly rigid demand procurement, there is no excess hoarding demand, and the operators are lack of confidence in the future, and their mentality is more cautious. It is expected that the tablet alkali market will decline in the short term or regionally.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

December fourth

December fifth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-300

100-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

250-400

250-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

150-200

150-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

250-350

150-250

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on December 5, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 312.22, down 11.11%, or 3.44%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: