Gasoline: Crude oil closed down again, and the gasoline market had more wait-and-see sentiment

Gasoline: crude oil closed down again, and there was more wait-and-see mood in the gasoline market.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231204	America	WTI	73.04	-1.03
20231204	The United Kingdom	Brent	78.03	-0.85

 

Gasoline price index

On December 5, China's gasoline price index fell 13%, or 0.15%, to 8731, while China's gasoline price index fell 13%, or 0.15%, to 9071. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 340.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China is mostly reduced, and the price of gasoline in North China, East China and Southwest China is reduced by 50-100 yuan per ton. The price of gasoline in Shandong, North and Central China has been reduced by 20-25 yuan per ton, which is not a big drop; gasoline prices in other areas are mainly stable. International oil prices closed down for three working days in a row, coupled with the current round of refined oil retail price limits are expected to be reduced, the market is mostly bad news, the middle and lower reaches of the wait-and-see mood increased. Therefore, refineries in areas with poor sales are more flexible to adjust their quotations, and the preferential operation of the transaction is still there.

December 5 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 12.4	Price 12.5	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8320-9600	8280-9600	-40/0
	95#	8520-9900	8480-9900	-40/0
South China	92#	8650-9730	8600-9700	-50/-30
	95#	8900-10000	8800-10000	-100/0
Central China	92#	8600-8900	8600-8900	0/0
	95#	8800-9250	8800-9250	0/0
East China region	92#	8450-9300	8400-9300	-50/0
	95#	8700-9600	8650-9600	-50/0
Northwestern region	92#	8350-9800	8350-9800	0/0
	95#	8550-10100	8550-10100	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8550-9100	8450-9100	-100/0
	95#	8750-9550	8650-9550	-100/0
Northeast China	92#	8395-8850	8400-8850	50/0
	95#	8600-9800	8600-9800	0/0

 

December 5 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 12.4	Price 12.5	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8190-8470	8150-8470	-40/0
	95#	8350-8610	8310-8610	-40/0
North China region	92#	8280-8290	8260-8270	-20/-20
	95#	8340-8380	8320-8360	-20/-20
Central China	92#	8550-8550	8500-8500	-50/-50
	95#	8750-8750	8700-8700	-50/-50
East China region	92#	8220-8450	8220-8450	0/0
	95#	8320-8580	8320-8580	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8050-8350	8050-8350	0/0
	95#	8500-8550	8500-8550	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8350-8300	8350-8300	0/0
	95#	8550-8500	8550-8500	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0
	95#	8850-8850	8850-8850	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, Saudi Arabia reiterates its determination to reduce OPEC+ production, is optimistic about the production reduction in the first quarter of next year, and is expected to tighten on the supply side; in addition, it is more likely that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in December to support oil prices. However, economic data in Europe and the United States remain weak and the demand outlook is more pessimistic. Weigh the international oil price may be expected to rise. From the point of view of the refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the retail price limit is expected to be reduced, and the news is a negative guide. Although there is still room for the refinery to raise the price at present, the market mentality is empty and the gasoline market lacks the guidance of positive factors. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to decline slightly in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on November 21, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China have been reduced by RMB340,330 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be December 5.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9100 yuan and 8055 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.