Methanol: Futures market highs fall back and spot prices have mixed trends

On December 4th, the methanol market price index was 2292.54, up 7.66 from the previous working day and 0.34% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on December 1:

China CFR 292-296USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 349-350EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 107108 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia ranged from US $340 to US $341 per ton, down US $4 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Route: 2080-2110 (0), Lunan: 2420 (20), Henan: 2320-2345 (- 15), Shanxi: 2290-2320 (40), Port: 2340-24352450 (- 45)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (0amp 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-290 (10max 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices fell in a narrow range, futures market high pullback, some operators in the market wait-and-see mood gradually, rigid demand transactions, the market volume is limited. Specifically, the market quotation in the northwest region rose slightly, with 2100-2120 yuan / ton in the south line and 2080-2110 yuan / ton in the north line. The futures market fluctuated and fell, the mentality of the operators was poor, and the enthusiasm of the lower reaches to enter the market to replenish stocks was also weaker than in the previous period. The quotation in Guanzhong area has been slightly raised, and the price of Changqing has been raised by 20 yuan / ton today: 2270 yuan / ton factory cash exchange for large orders and 2280 yuan / ton factory cash exchange for small orders. After the new price is issued, the manufacturers' shipments are not good. Shandong, the main consumer area, is weak and stable, with 2420 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2340-2430 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The wait-and-see mood in the market at the beginning of the week is strong, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2330-2380 yuan / ton today. The volatility of the futures market has fallen, the mentality of the operators has weakened, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market is general. The quotation in Shanxi has fallen in a narrow range, and there is no obvious increase in downstream market demand at present, and the performance of fundamental support is poor.

Port market: today, methanol futures rose narrowly, the spot quotation of the port adjusted with the market, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was general. All-day Taicang transaction price range: spot transaction range 2475-2495 yuan; December transaction range 2495-2505 yuan; mid-December transaction price 2500 yuan; December transaction price 2495-2530 yuan; January transaction price 2495-2520 yuan.

Future forecast: recently, the Chinese market equipment overhaul, restart, Yanzhou mining Guohong 640000 tons device is now reduced to double furnace operation, Guangju new material annual production of 600000 tons of coke installed near November 22 short stop maintenance, has not yet recovered, Ningning coal plant parking, part of the field supply has been reduced, coupled with the early shipment is more smooth, the supply pressure is not great, the regional manufacturers quote high operation. However, at present, part of the traditional downstream has entered the off-season of consumption, terminal demand is expected to weaken, coupled with the high decline of the futures market, some operators in the market are gradually on the wait-and-see mood for the future, restocking is more cautious. Generally speaking, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price range will fluctuate mainly. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head equipment in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.