Gasoline: International oil prices close down, China's upward trend is under pressure

Gasoline: international oil prices close down, China's rising trend is under pressure

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231130	America	WTI	75.96	-1.9
20231130	The United Kingdom	Brent	82.83	-0.27

 

Gasoline price index

On December 1, China's gasoline price index rose 6.19, or 0.07%, to 8756.33, while China's gasoline price index rose 2.85, or 0.03%, to 9097.18. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 340.86.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been raised by a narrow range. Specifically, the increase in gasoline prices in Central China, Southwest China and Northeast China is concentrated at 60 yuan per ton; gasoline prices in other areas are mainly sorted out. The ex-factory price of georefining declined slightly, with gasoline prices in Shandong, North China and East China reduced by 20-50 yuan per ton. Prices in other areas are relatively stable. International oil prices closed down, China's gasoline market trading atmosphere cooled, but the completion of the main task is good, coupled with the procurement cost support, the willingness to raise prices is OK. The wait-and-see mood of local refineries is more, and the prices of refineries in some areas are appropriately lowered to stimulate shipments.

December 1 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 11.30	Price 12.1	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8360-9600	8360-9600	0/0
	95#	8560-9900	8560-9900	0/0
South China	92#	8650-9700	8650-9700	0/0
	95#	8900-10000	8900-10000	0/0
Central China	92#	8600-8900	8600-8900	0/0
	95#	8750-9200	8800-9250	50/50
East China region	92#	8450-9300	8450-9300	0/0
	95#	8700-9600	8700-9600	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8250-9800	8250-9800	0/0
	95#	8350-10100	8350-10100	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8550-9080	8600-9080	50/0
	95#	8800-9510	8850-9510	50/0
Northeast China	92#	8345-8850	8375-8850	30/0
	95#	8580-9800	8580-9800	50/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on December 1 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 11.30	Price 12.1	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8200-8540	8200-8490	0/-50
	95#	8380-8660	8360-8630	-20/-30
North China region	92#	8330-8350	8300-8320	-30/-30
	95#	8400-8430	8370-8370	-30/-30
Central China	92#	8730-8730	8680-8680	-50/-50
	95#	8930-8930	8880-8880	-50/-50
East China region	92#	8260-8500	8260-8500	0/0
	95#	8360-8630	8360-8630	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8050-8350	8050-8350	0/0
	95#	8500-8550	8500-8550	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8300-8300	8300-8300	0/0
	95#	8500-8500	8500-8500	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0
	95#	8850-8850	8850-8850	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, OPEC+ member countries announced voluntary production cuts in the first quarter of 2024, but lower than the psychological level expected by the market, and the market is worried about later implementation efforts. The market risk aversion mood increases, the operation is cautious. On the demand side of China's gasoline market, the weather is getting cooler, and the consumption of terminal gasoline is stable but not bright, which does not support the Chinese market. The main unit of the refinery is more willing to raise the price, and the local refinery is relatively flexible. Overall, China's gasoline market is expected to be mainly stable in the short term, with a slight increase.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on November 21, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China have been reduced by RMB340,330 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be December 5.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9100 yuan and 8055 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.