Methanol: The methanol period is now rising in a narrow range. Market transaction sentiment is mixed

On November 29th, the methanol market price index was 2265.65, up 9.9% from yesterday and 0.44% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 28th:

China CFR 281-286USD / ton, down US $1 / tonne

European FOB 353.25-354.25 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 107108 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 344-345 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2170-2220 (0), North Route: 2070-2100 (20), Lunan: 2350-2380 (0), Henan: 2300-2345 (10), Shanxi: 2230-2255 (0), Port: 24102425 (10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 200-280 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-270 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market price range adjustment, futures market shock operation, the Chinese market transaction atmosphere is different, Henan auction transaction is more smooth today. Specifically, the northwest market quotation narrow adjustment, today the southern line 2100-2120 yuan / ton, the north line 2070-2100 yuan / ton, the low end raised 20 yuan / ton, the futures market fell first and then rebounded, the market wait-and-see mood gradually, the trading atmosphere weakened. Market quotations in Ningxia are affected by the inflow of some low-priced goods from northern Shaanxi and Wuhai. Prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, move steadily, of which southern Shandong quotes 2350-2380 yuan / ton and northern Shandong 2340-2380 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mood of the industry is obvious, the market transaction is rigid, and the manufacturers have more retail orders. The market price in North China is stable and small. Today, Hebei quotation revolves around 2310-2370 yuan / ton, the downstream rigid demand is mainly purchasing, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. Shanxi quoted price of 2230-2255 yuan / ton, most of the local enterprise inventory is not pressurized, and the manufacturers have a strong price attitude under the support of low warehouse. Today, Henan methanol market prices rose slightly, mainstream manufacturers returned to normal auction and premium transactions, coupled with the recent futures market trend is strong, the shape of the industry has improved.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded after falling today. Rigid demand negotiations within the month; long-month arbitrage shipments, early morning low pick-up positive, strong basis; afternoon high shipments increased, the basis stabilized. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: 11 deals: 2415-2440, base difference 01: 8 picks 12: 12 transaction: 2425-2450, base differences 01: 15 picks 25 investors 12: 2435-2455, base differences 01: 30 picks 35 deals: 12 deals: 2440-2465, bases 01 "38 picks 40 players 1 deals & nbsp;:2450-2475, the basis difference is 0145.

Future forecast: at present, the coal price at the raw material side is weak and stable, and the cost-side support is average, but with the volatility of the futures market upward, the mentality of the operators in the market has been boosted to a certain extent, but restrained by terminal demand. Some operators still have a wait-and-see mood towards the future market, the overall trading volume is limited, some operators still have a wait-and-see mood for the future market, and the Chinese market is still in a state of supply and demand game. In terms of ports, up to now, the market inventory in the port area has been mainly removed, among which the market in East China is the most obvious, mainly due to the good speed of cargo pick-up in the region, which to a certain extent supports the performance of inventory removal in the region. at present, the operation of overseas devices is relatively stable, and the number of foreign ships arriving at port is still relatively concentrated. It is expected that the port inventory will still operate at a high level in the short term, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the arrival and unloading speed of imported shipments. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market may maintain the interval shock trend, but in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head units in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.