Daily review of urea: Factory orders are better, price is slightly increased, order receiving is controlled (November 29)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 29 was 2,527.86, up 3.64 from yesterday, up 0.14% month-on-month, and down 10.45% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2323, the highest price is 2344, the lowest price is 2258, the settlement price is 2309, and the closing price is 2289. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the month-on-month decline is 0.95%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2258-2344; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 151; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 13743 lots today, and so far, it has held 183186 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea prices have been slightly increased. After good orders, factories have increased their quotations to control orders. Under the support of the supply guarantee policy, the price increase has been relatively small.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,510 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,340 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,470 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,480 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,440 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,440 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,580 - 2,660 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,630 - 2,660 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers are better at receiving orders at low prices. Currently, the number of days in which Chinese urea companies receive orders in advance is 6.59. In order to control receiving orders, the prices of most manufacturers have increased slightly, and the overall market price has stopped falling and increased. Traders remain wait-and-see, and the overall market is in a game between manufacturers. On the supply side, the company's daily production remains high. Some companies in the southwest may be the first to park their vehicles, and then in the northwest and other places will park their vehicles one after another. Compared with previous years 'data, it is expected to show signs of recovery in February next year. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in a gap period, and most of the downstream purchases are followed up on sporadic small orders; the industry just needs to purchase goods in multiple stages. In terms of the market, under the influence of the policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea market's sentiment for chasing high prices has cooled down. The industry has a wait-and-see attitude and is cautious in taking more goods, putting pressure on the market.

On the whole, the urea market is currently facing difficulties in reducing production and expected price declines. However, with the support of supply guarantees, the market's upward trend is limited. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to maintain range fluctuations in the short term.