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Caustic soda: The futures price rose significantly, fluctuating by 100 points during the day. Spot liquid soda rose and flake soda fell

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November 29, 2023, 4:12 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    November29th SH2405 contract opening price: 2601, the highest price: 2685, the lowest price: 2585, the position: 47533, the reduction: 540, the settlement price: 2655, yesterday's settlement: 2593, up: 62, the closing price: 2657, the daily trading volume: 146361 hands, the precipitated capital: 909 million, the capital inflow: 11.82 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

November twenty _ eighth

November twenty _ ninth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1300

950-1300

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-784

736-784

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

770-890

800-890

30/0

-

Hebei

820-870

840-890

20/20

Ex-factory price

South China

940-1250

940-1250

0/0

Can price

Shandong

730-930

730-950

0/20

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1080-1120

1080-1120

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

820-880

820-880

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2500-2600

2550-2650

50/50

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-880

830-880

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2850-3000

2850-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1260-1380

1300-1380

40/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1360-1380

1410-1430

50/50

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1280-1330

1300-1350

20/20

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2600-2750

2600-2800

0/50

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3100-3200

3100-3200

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2900-3100

2850-3000

-50/-100

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3650-3800

3650-3800

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1320-1380

1320-1380

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

870-940

870-940

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3100-3250

3100-3250

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:      today's caustic soda market continues to show differential operation, the market transaction atmosphere is general, liquid alkali prices rose slightly in some areas, tablet alkali prices fell mainly, the mentality of the two market operators are different. Today, the price of liquid alkali has risen slightly in some areas, and the market has shown an upward trend. from the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali has increased by 20-50 yuan / ton, and 50% of ionic membrane alkali has increased by 20-50 yuan / ton. the prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the equipment of liquid alkali production enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, is under load reduction or overhaul, the supply side is reduced, there is favorable support for the local market, and the market transaction price center of gravity moves up; enterprise inventory in some areas is low, the pressure is not great, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is OK, the enterprise shipment situation is relatively increased, the market is up. The market transaction atmosphere in other areas is general, mostly maintain the previous level, the supply and demand side changes little, and the operation is relatively mild, there are no obvious factors affecting the market trend in the market, and there is no obvious change in the transaction price center for the time being. Some of the upstream production enterprises adjust the ex-factory quotations, mainly in North China and Shandong, mainly upward, while manufacturers in other areas wait and see to stabilize prices. Today, the price of tablet alkali fell mainly, the quotation of the new price manufacturers in the northwest region was lowered in some areas, the manufacturers in some areas waited and saw the market, and the market transaction price fell in some areas. The merchant shipping situation is relatively flexible, the downstream receiving situation in some areas is not good, coupled with the impact of the downward quotation of manufacturers, the market transaction price center of gravity has mainly shifted downward, there is no obvious price adjustment in some markets, and the mentality is cautious.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract shows an obvious upward trend. After the opening price of night trading fell slightly to the lowest level of 2585 today, it quickly rose to the high point, then fluctuated back down, and the daytime price fluctuated around the 2650 line throughout the day, without seeing a big market. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated from 2585 to 2685 throughout the day, with a price difference of 100 minus 05 contracts to reduce their positions by 540 hands and 47533 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index was 2836.78, up 16.64%, or 0.59%, and China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract rose sharply, showing a phased new high of 2685, today's high and low point difference of 100 points, compared with the previous days of small fluctuations in the operation opportunities increased. In terms of transaction, 19.8% more than empty opening 18.2%, empty 18.2% compared to 21.8% more flat. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) show a narrowing trend, the price upward breaks through the middle track, and the daily KD line and MACD line turn to golden fork trend. The short-term caustic soda price may continue to run around the middle track.

Spot aspect: at present, there is an obvious differentiation in the trend of caustic soda market, the overall rising trend of liquid alkali market, and the decline of tablet alkali market. First of all, from the point of view of the liquid alkali market, the load reduction or maintenance of some devices in the main producing area of Shandong has supported the local market. at present, the negative factors in the liquid alkali market have decreased, and positive factors have appeared in some areas to support the local market. at present, there are still differences in the fundamentals of different regions, and it is expected that the short-term liquid alkali market may continue to operate at a pace of flexible price adjustment. At present, tablet alkali enterprises are still in the stage of no inventory, and dragged down by the weak market sentiment, the new order quotation in Northwest China has been lowered this week, and the market transaction price has also moved downwardly. recently, the start-up of the device in the tablet alkali market is relatively stable and the supply side is stable. the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream in some areas of downstream demand is poor, which makes the shipment situation of traders not ideal and the market mentality weak. It is expected that the transaction price in some areas of the short-term tablet alkali market may still decline.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

November twenty _ eighth

November twenty _ ninth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

400-600

200-400

-200/-200

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

450-600

350-500

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

300-350

200-250

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

350-450

350-450

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

400-600

300-500

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on November 29th, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 373.33, down 55.56, or 12.95%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: