Methanol: Futures market returns to 2400 yuan mark, spot prices fluctuate and increase

On November 27th, the methanol market price index was 2244.9, up 10.96 from the previous working day and 0.49% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 24:

China CFR 280,283 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 347.25-348.25 euros / ton, up 9.50 euros / ton

The United States is closed

Southeast Asian CFR 349-350 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2170-2220 (0), North Route: 2050-2100 (40), Lunan: 2310-2320 (10), Henan: 2280-2300 (20), Shanxi: 2160-2230 (0), Port: 24002425 (20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-280 (0Uniqure 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (- 10 Universe 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price shock rose, the futures market returned to the 2400 yuan mark, the mentality of some operators in the market slightly improved, and some regional manufacturers raised their quotations. Specifically, the market quotation in the northwest market has been raised narrowly, today, 2030-2040 yuan / ton for the south line, 2050-2100 yuan / ton for the north line, and 40 yuan / ton for the low end. The bidding price of some manufacturers in the field has been raised, and the price of Changqing has been lowered smoothly. Then the market price rebounded within a narrow range. Today, the second price of Changqing has been raised by 30 yuan / ton: large price 2200 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, small single price 2210 yuan / ton factory cash exchange. Market quotations in Ningxia are affected by the inflow of some low-priced goods from northern Shaanxi and Wuhai. The price in Shandong, the main consumer, has been raised along with it, of which southern Shandong is quoted at 2310-2310 yuan / ton and northern Shandong at 2330-2340 yuan / ton. the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is obvious, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the manufacturers have more retail orders. The market price in North China is stable and small. Today, Hebei quotation revolves around 2260 yuan / ton, and the downstream rigid demand is mainly purchased, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. Shanxi quotation 2160-2330 yuan / ton, to maintain the last working day, the market trading atmosphere is OK, pay attention to tomorrow's market auction.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated higher today. Rigid demand buying and selling within the month; early morning arbitrage selling mainly, receiving goods actively, reasonable price transaction, strong basis; higher shipments in the afternoon, the basis stabilized. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction : 2400-2430, base difference 01: 2425, base difference: 2400: 2425, base difference: 01pm: 10: 12, base difference: 2405-2435, base difference: 01: 15, 18: 12: 2410-2445, base difference: 2420-2450, base difference: 01: 25, 35: 1: 2440, base difference: 01: 35: 40.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material coal price is weak and stable, and the cost side supports methanol in general. Although the futures market has rebounded at present, due to the suppression of terminal demand, some operators in the market still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. The overall trading volume of the market is limited, and in the later stage, with the cold weather, the characteristics of some downstream consumption off-season are gradually highlighted, and it is difficult for the terminal market to have a bright performance on methanol consumption, but it should be noted that Recently, there is a new production capacity in the acetic acid market, and the downstream demand may be expected to be better at that time, but the overall increase in demand may be relatively limited. At present, with the continuous decline in early prices, there is still a certain wait-and-see mood for the future. Although the futures market has rebounded at present, the boost to the mentality of the operators is relatively limited, and the downstream transaction still maintains rigid demand. It is expected that the methanol market may maintain a short-term interval shock trend, but in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head devices in the southwest and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.