Methanol: Futures market has not stopped falling and spot prices continue to fall

On November 22nd, the methanol market price index was 2261.41, down 12.31 from yesterday and 0.55 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 21:

China CFR 280,283 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 319.75-320.75 euros / ton, up 3.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 98-100cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 345.25-346.25 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2170-2200 (0), North Route: 1980-2030 (- 10), Lunan: 2300-2310 (- 40), Henan: 2270-2310 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2250 (0), Port: 23752390 (- 65)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-300 (0ax 10), South Line-North Shandong 240-300 (0ax 10), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market continues to fall, and the futures market has fallen sharply recently, coupled with the poor performance of market demand downstream of the terminal, the strong wait-and-see mood of operators, the overall poor enthusiasm for entering the market to replenish goods, and the hindrance of manufacturers' shipments. some choose to let the profit to ship the goods, but the transaction is still not significantly improved. Specifically, the market quotations in the northwest market have fallen partially, with 2030-2040 yuan / ton in the south line and 1980-2030 yuan / ton in the north line today. Recently, with the continued decline in the futures market, the market quotations in the region have dropped somewhat. The low-end price in the north line area has fallen below 2000 yuan / ton, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. Under the support of low supply, the quotation of manufacturers in Ningxia remains strong. Shandong, the main consumer area, was accompanied by a downward adjustment, of which Lunan quoted 2300-2310 yuan / ton, the performance of the terminal downstream market demand did not improve significantly, and the market transaction atmosphere was light; northern Shandong quoted 2280-2300 yuan / ton, and there is no obvious fluctuation in terminal demand for the time being. the mentality of operators is more wait-and-see, mainly seeking bargains to fill the gap. The market price in North China is stable and small. Today, Hebei quotation revolves around 2260-2280 yuan / ton, the downstream rigid demand is mainly purchasing, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general. Shanxi quotation 2200-2250 yuan / ton, downstream rigid demand replenishment-based, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is light.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly after falling today. Spot selling basis difference shipment, rigid demand bargain purchase. Long-term arbitrage shipments, a small amount of unilateral bargain-hunting, the negotiation atmosphere is not strong. The current basis difference is slightly stronger, and the overall turnover throughout the day is light. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction : 2370-2390, base difference 01pm 11. Deal: 2380-2390, base difference 01pm lesson 512 deal: 2385-2395, base spread 01pm 5bot 8cross 12 deal: 2395-2400, base spread 01pm 10x 12 deal: 2395-2415, basis difference 01pm 20pm 25.

Forecast in the future: the methanol futures market continues to weaken recently, which suppresses the mood of the traders in the market to a certain extent. coupled with the narrow decline of coal prices and the weakening of cost-end support, most operators are more pessimistic and the trading atmosphere is light. At present, the weakness of downstream demand is still the main factor to restrain the methanol market price, and the futures market has fallen sharply recently, and the bearish sentiment in the market is strong. It is expected that the possibility of a short-term rebound in methanol prices in China is small, and the regional trend may continue in the short term, but in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head units in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.