Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back, spot prices weakened simultaneously

On November 20th, the methanol market price index was 2270.61, which was 6.45 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.28% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

On November 17th, methanol closed:

China CFR 287-291USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 316.25-317.25 euros / ton, down 0.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 98-100cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 345.25-346.25 US dollars / ton, up 4.25 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2250 (0), North Route: 2030-2100 (- 20), Lunan: 2350 (0), Henan: 2300-2315 (30), Shanxi: 2220-2255 (- 10), Port: 2470-2480 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-290 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-290 (0mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the futures market fluctuates, the spot market mentality is suppressed to a certain extent, and the price in the Chinese market falls in a narrow range, coupled with the poor performance of the market demand downstream of the terminal at present. most operators are obviously bearish about the future, and the market trading atmosphere is different. Specifically, the market quotation in the northwest market has dropped narrowly, with 2080 yuan / ton for the south line and 2030-2100 yuan / ton for the north line. At present, the market turnover is limited, and some manufacturers in the Guanzhong area market offer the goods more smoothly after the second adjustment. Recently, the market quotations in Ningxia and the south line are operating at a high level under the support of little inventory pressure. The recent quotation in Shandong, the main consumer area, has not changed much, of which southern Shandong quoted 2350 yuan / ton, and the demand performance of the terminal downstream market has not significantly improved, and the market transaction atmosphere is light; northern Shandong quoted 2330 yuan / ton, the operator's mentality is more cautious, coupled with the volatility of futures market, the market wait-and-see mood is obvious. North China market wait-and-see mood is more obvious, today, Hebei quotation around 2280-2330 yuan / ton, downstream rigid demand procurement, the overall market trading atmosphere is general. Shanxi quotation 2220-2255 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere is peaceful, manufacturers inventory can be controlled without pressure, pay attention to tomorrow's market auction.

Port market: methanol futures fell today. Spot rigid demand buying follow up, with forward price difference narrowing. Paper goods one-sided bargain delivery, arbitrage delivery-based, the basis is strong; the exchange of goods has increased in recent months, and the overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction & nbsp;:2445-2460, base difference 01-10 Universe Melbourne 11 transaction: 2445-2480, base difference 01-10 pessimism 3 transaction 12 transaction: 2460-2485, base difference 01 / 10 / 7 / 15.

Future forecast: in the near future, the fundamentals of methanol are still in the state of supply and demand game, there is no obvious positive support for the fundamentals, the downstream still maintains rigid demand replenishment, coupled with the volatility of the futures market, and the market operators' wait-and-see mood is obvious. some Chinese manufacturers store and sell goods, but the terminal downstream demand and weak, the market transaction is difficult to have obvious volume, and later with the cold weather. Some downstream factories may enter the parking holiday stage one after another, and the traditional downstream seasonal off-season characteristics may gradually highlight. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of methanol itself still exists, and the wait-and-see mood of the market is obvious, but considering that there is still some support in the current cost side, and the manufacturers are not willing to fall deeply, it is expected that the short-term methanol market will continue the regional trend, but in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head units in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.

Recent operation of the device: