Methanol: Futures market fluctuated upward, Chinese market consolidated within a narrow range

On November 17th, the methanol market price index was 2277.06, down 5.18 from yesterday, down 0.23% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 16th:

China CFR 287-291 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 317-318 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 98-100cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 341-342USD / ton, up US $1 / tonne.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2250 (0), North Route: 2050-2100 (- 10), Lunan: 2350 (0), Henan: 2300-2325 (10), Shanxi: 2230-2240 (- 10), Port: 2470-2480 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-290 (10max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-290 (0mp 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market is slightly increased, the transaction atmosphere in the Chinese market is different, the auction price in Henan is rising, and the transaction is smooth, and the price changes in other regions are limited. The recent market quotations in Ningxia and the South Line are running at a high level under the support of little inventory pressure, and under the support of low inventory, the operators' rising price sentiment is obvious, and the overall shipments of manufacturers are OK, but the market turnover in Guanzhong and North Line areas is general. The driving force for manufacturers to raise their quotations is relatively limited. Today, the South Line quotation is 2080 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the North Line quotation is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. Market transactions vary. Shandong, the main consumer region, reported a narrow adjustment, including 2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2330 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The market demand performance downstream of the terminal has not improved significantly, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. The fluctuation of the market in North China is limited. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the downstream market is OK, and the rigid demand is mainly in the market transaction. Hebei quotation today 2280-2330 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, downstream to maintain rigid demand to pick up goods. Shanxi market quotation of 2230-2240 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures range fluctuated today. Spot rigid demand delivery. Long-term unilateral high selling low suction point price, arbitrage buying cautious, the basis stabilized. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: 11, transaction price: 2485, basis 01-22, margin: 01-22, price difference: 2475-2495, margin: 01-10, transaction price: 2490-2500, basis difference: 01pm: 12, transaction price: 2495-2515, basis difference: 01pm: 13.

Future forecast: at present, the methanol market still shows a regional trend, although the cost side gives some support to the market, but considering the fundamentals of methanol itself, the market price rising power is insufficient, with the recent increase in the price of natural gas in the southwest, some air head devices have been stopped for maintenance, but the impact on the overall market supply is relatively limited, and the mentality of operators does not change much. At present, at present, the cost side still gives some support to the methanol market, but the good support of methanol supply and demand is limited, and the price-raising sentiment of local operators is obvious under the support of low supply pressure, but it is still mainly arranged in other parts of China. It is expected that the short-term Chinese market will continue the regional trend. However, in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head equipment in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.

Recent operation of the device: