Daily Review of Urea: Market prices remain relatively stable and wait for guidance from industry meetings (November 16)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 16 was 2,586.95, down 8.18 from yesterday, down 0.32% month-on-month, and down 2.68% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2349, the highest price is 2384, the lowest price is 2313, the settlement price is 2352, and the closing price is 2383. The closing price is up 15 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 0.63%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2313-2384; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 97; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 7216 lots today, and so far, the position is 284759 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea price trend is still weak. Although some quotes have shown an upward trend, the increase is relatively small, market changes are relatively flat, and the overall price trend is stable.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,590 - 2,660 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,380 - 2,680 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,550 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,480 - 2,550 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,520 - 2,660 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has risen to 2,620 - 2,730 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,660 - 2,720 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the daily output of the urea industry still remains high, the operating rate remains at around 80%, and the inventory of enterprises is still low. Recent overhauls of some units and the shutdown of gas-head urea have led to a slight decrease in supply, but it is still at a high level in the same period, and the supply is relatively sufficient. In terms of manufacturers, low-end price receipts of upstream companies have improved. When there is sufficient volume to be shipped, prices are mainly raised. However, due to the dull market transactions, prices are mostly stable. In terms of the market, affected by the news of relevant measures released by relevant departments again, the urgency of market procurement has dropped. In addition, the recent market focus has been mostly on the phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry meetings, and the market activity is relatively low, so guidance is awaited from this meeting. On the demand side, affected by policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices and unstable futures prices, downstream procurement is currently slightly cautious. In addition, there is news that the short reserve procurement cycle may change slightly, so demand is sluggish at this stage.

Overall, market news continues at this stage, and market changes depend on guidance from this phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry meeting. It is expected that the urea market price will temporarily maintain a stable and small dynamic trend in a short period of time.