Daily Review of Urea: A small number of new orders in the market are temporarily in a game state of manufacturers (November 14)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 14 was 2,592.86, up 2.27 from yesterday, up 0.09% month-on-month, and down 2.44% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2368, the highest price is 2435, the lowest price is 2319, the settlement price is 2375, and the closing price is 2340. The closing price is down 29 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.22% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2319-2435; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 160; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 1319 lots today, and so far, it has held 305853 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea prices once again saw a slight increase, and the price dropped to a low level. The market transaction atmosphere has increased. Companies have received better orders. Currently, quotations have been increased.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,590 - 2,660 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,370 - 2,680 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,550 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,480 - 2,540 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,500 - 2,660 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,610 - 2,730 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,680 - 2,740 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the daily output of the urea industry still remains high, and the operating rate remains at around 80%. In the future, the rotation and shutdown of gas head units may bring about a downward trend in operating rates. On the manufacturer's side, the manufacturer shipped without pressure for a short period of time. After slightly lowering the price, in order to control the receipt of orders, an appropriate amount of accumulated stock was increased, and the quotation was raised again. In terms of the market, there is constant market news. After continuous price reductions, the market has replenished a small amount. Now that the price has been adjusted again, the market trading atmosphere has turned from strong to weak. On the demand side, most of the current demand is mainly reserves, and the market is highly resistant to high prices. Most of them wait and see for the time being, and wait and see when the price is low. Compound fertilizer enterprises resumed production of parking equipment in the early stage, the operating rate increased, and the demand for urea increased.

On the whole, the market is still in a game between manufacturers, with limited price increases and decreases, and the market performance is range fluctuations. Therefore, it is expected that the urea market price will mainly fluctuate slightly in the short term.