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Caustic soda: Futures were arranged sideways, with a positive cross star on the market, and spot prices rose slightly

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November 14, 2023, 3:24 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    November 14 SH2405 contract opening price: 2643, highest price: 2677, lowest price: 2637, spread: 40, position: 59208, reduced position: 919, settlement price: 2657, yesterday settlement: 2661, down: 4, closing price: 2672, daily trading volume: 90160 lots, precipitated capital: 1.139 billion, capital inflow: 500000.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

November thirteenth

November fourteenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1350

950-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-800

736-800

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

760-840

760-840

0/0

-

Hebei

840-880

840-880

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

950-1250

950-1250

0/0

Can price

Shandong

730-860

730-860

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1050-1120

1080-1120

30/0

-

Jiangsu Province

810-860

830-950

20/90

Delivery price

Tianjin

2600-2650

2600-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

800-880

830-880

30/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2850-3000

2850-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1220-1350

1240-1380

20/30

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1330-1350

1360-1380

30/30

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1200-1270

1240-1300

40/30

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2750-3000

2750-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2700-3000

2700-3000

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3600

3550-3650

50/50

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1330-1430

1350-1430

20/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

940-1000

940-1000

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3100-3250

3100-3250

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      today, the overall trend of China's caustic soda market is slightly upward, the center of gravity of market transactions in some areas has moved up, there are regional differences between supply and demand, and have different effects on the positive and negative factors of each regional market, and some operators still hold a wait-and-see mentality. Today, the price of liquid alkali continues to show a small upward trend, and the market trading atmosphere is OK. From the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali rose 20-90 yuan / ton, 50% of the ionic membrane alkali rose 20-40 yuan / ton, and 49% of the ionic membrane alkali rose 20 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the price range. The market trend in East China is OK, the center of gravity of transaction prices in some regional markets has moved slightly upward, the supply side of the region has narrowed, which is good for the local, and the downstream procurement performance is OK, coupled with the strong quotations of local production enterprises. the market transaction price rose slightly; the increase in the price of high concentration alkali in some areas is mainly supported by the reduction of supply, which ranges from 20 to 40 yuan / ton. The market prices in other regions are stable, the changes between supply and demand are not obvious, the market mentality is more cautious, and there is no obvious price adjustment. Upstream production enterprises a small number of manufacturers raised ex-factory quotations, price adjustment in different directions, production enterprises in most other areas have not adjusted their quotations yet. Today, the trading atmosphere in the tablet alkali market is flexible, the upstream production enterprise equipment is stable, and the enterprise signing order is OK. A small number of manufacturers have announced a new order price increase, but some manufacturers have not yet made a new price; the market transaction price in most areas is mainly arranged in a narrow range, the market transaction price is higher than the factory quotation, the shipment situation in various regions is relatively stable, and the wait-and-see mentality in some areas is heavy.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract as a whole slightly upward. The night trading price fluctuated widely and rose in late trading. In early trading, the price rose to a relative high and then began to wobble downwards. After a short concussion in the afternoon, it rose to today's highest level of 2677, and then rose again in late trading after a slight decline. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2637-2677 throughout the day, with a price difference of 40 minus 05 contracts to reduce positions in 919 positions and 59208 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index rose to 2810.56 on November 14, up 16.92%, or 0.606%. China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract rose slightly, the futures price fluctuated at around 20:00 around 2657, and the whole-day fluctuation range was only 40 points, which is less than the 100-point fluctuation in previous days; at present, the position has been reduced to less than 60, 000 hands, and trading is 14.7% higher than short opening 18%, empty 20.5% and more than 16.7%. At the technical level, the opening of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is still upward, and in the short term, the price may still fluctuate above the middle rail, paying attention to the support level of the middle rail.

Spot aspect: at present, a small number of devices in the liquid alkali market are under maintenance, which forms a favorable support for the local market, and the start-up of most devices is relatively stable. Although the inventory of the manufacturers has decreased relative to the previous period, the supply side in the market is still relatively sufficient. In most areas, there is still no obvious favorable support. Most of the downstream demand is rigid demand procurement, the demand performance is general, there are regional differences in the enthusiasm of receiving goods, and there are differences between supply and demand in different regions as a whole. In the near future, the market mostly operates with flexible price adjustment, and it is expected that the short-term market will maintain the current flexible trend, and local prices will mainly be adjusted according to local and enterprise conditions. Some manufacturers in the tablet alkali market have announced a rise in new prices, while there are still some enterprises that have not announced new prices, and there is a greater possibility of a single rise. judging from the current market situation, the center of gravity of transaction prices in some areas has moved up, which is higher than the ex-factory quotation, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively active. It is expected that there may still be room for market prices in various regions of tablet alkali in the short term.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

November thirteenth

November fourteenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

400-600

300-500

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

500-600

400-500

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

350-400

350-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

250-450

250-450

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

350-450

200-300

-150/-150

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

250-300

250-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

500-700

400-600

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on November 14, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 412.22, down 54.44, or 11.67%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.