Methanol: Futures market correction exceeds 2% and spot price adjustment is regional

On November 13th, the methanol market price index was 2274.51, 1.28 lower than the previous working day, and 0.06% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 10th:

China CFR 287-289 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 335.75-336.25 euros / ton, down 11.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 102.75-103.25 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia was US $343,344 per ton, down US $6 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2550 (0), North Route: 2065-2090 (0), Lunan: 2380 (0), Henan: 2280-2290 (0), Shanxi: 2230-2240 (30), Port: 2480-2505 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-280 (20thumb 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 220-290 (- 30mp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol futures market volatility fell, the mentality of operators is more cautious, coupled with the current terminal downstream market demand performance has not significantly improved, the market trading atmosphere is light. Specifically, the market quotations in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range. Today, the northern line quotes 2065-2090 yuan / ton, and the southern line quotes 2050-2060 yuan / tonne. Today's futures market is sharply reduced, which is beneficial to the mindset of operators in the market, and the market wait-and-see mood is obvious. Ningxia quotation is running at a high price under the support of low supply, and the manufacturers' price attitude is strong. From the perspective of Shandong, the main consumer area, at present, there is a little pressure on the inventory of mainstream manufacturers in the region, coupled with the weakening of the futures market, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high. Today, southern Shandong quotes 2380 yuan / ton; northern Shandong quotes 2330-2350 yuan / ton. The market price in central China is adjusted in a narrow range, with Henan quoted price of 2280-2290 yuan / ton and Lianghu quoted price of 2450-2630 yuan / ton. downstream demand has not improved significantly in the short term, maintaining rigid demand for procurement. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell in a narrow range today. Within the month, rigid demand replenishment, moderate price follow-up, the basis is strong. Long-term unilateral bargain delivery, arbitrage delivery-based, the basis to maintain stability is slightly stronger. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction : 2445-2465, basis 01-10, basis 01-10, deal: 2450-2475, basis 01-2475, basis 01-2480, basis 01-2470, basis 01-2470, basis 01-2495, basis 01-10, base difference 01-10, basis 01-10, basis 01-0, base 01-10, base 01-10, basis 01-10, basis 01-2475, basis 01-10, basis 01-

Future forecast: in terms of cost, with the cold weather, most areas in the north have entered the heating season, the demand of the coal market is gradually released, the price of raw material coal is adjusted in a narrow range, and the cost side still gives some support to the methanol market. but at present, the performance of methanol itself is mediocre. The 500000-ton Yingde gas plant in Jingmen, Hubei Province was stopped for maintenance on November 7 and has resumed operation at full load. The 200000-ton Tianfu plant in Guizhou was stopped for maintenance on October 29th. At present, it has been restored one after another, and the market supply in some areas has increased, but at present, some natural gas plants have been stopped in the southwest, and there are still devices for parking and maintenance in the later stage, hedging each other. The overall good support of the supply side is limited, and at present, the demand of the terminal downstream market has not improved significantly. Under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, the wait-and-see mood of operators is obvious, coupled with a sharp decline in the futures market. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is not good. Generally speaking, it is expected that the short-term methanol market may show a regional trend, but in the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of air head units in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.