[Ethanol Daily Review]: China's ethanol market trends on November 13

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November 13, 2023, 4:23 PM

On November 13th, the general-grade ethanol price index was 6264.00, which was stable compared with the previous working day.

& nbsp; the price region of China's ethanol market weakens. November 13 hot spots: first, Henan superior prices are stable. Second, prices in East China are stable. Third, the price in Northeast China is weak. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate is weak. Fifth, logistics prices rise on individual lines. Sixth, the purchasing price of regional georefining continues to be weak.

Specifically, the price of Jilin Dachang in Northeast China is weak, waiting for downstream feedback. The installation of individual enterprises in Henan area has been restored, and the price has remained stable. The rigid demand of chemical industry in East China is purchased, the transaction price of chemical industry is weak, and the trade supply is consumed. The price of fuel ethanol is weak due to the limited downstream demand and the increase of enterprise inventory. The earth refinery is sent to the price weak finishing. Northeast enterprise Jilin market price 6250-6400 yuan / ton, Jilin no water 6900-7100 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6100-6400 yuan / ton, and the Heilongjiang anhydrous market is 6900-7150 yuan / ton. The northeast closing position is about 6600-6700 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China are quoted at 6700 yuan / ton, and the water-free price is 7400-7600 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6700-6750 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7450-7550 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 6900-6950 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol & nbsp;7050-7200 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp; unit: yuan / ton

Area	Specifications	Market	2023/11/13	2023/11/10	Rise and fall
South China	Cassava is anhydrous	Guangxi	7700-7750	7700-7750	0/0
	Molasses 95%	Guangxi	-	-	-
	Cassava 95%	Guangxi	7050-7200	7050-7200	0/0
North China	Superior grade	Hebei	-	-	-
North China	No water	Hebei	7300-7350	7300-7350	0/0
Northeast China	General level	Jilin	6250-6400	6300-6400	-50/0
	No water	Jilin	6900-7100	7000-7100	-100/0
	General level	Jinzhou	6600-6700	6600-6700	0/0
	General level	Heilongjiang Province	6100-6400	6200-6400	-100/0
East China	General level	Anhui Province	6750-6800	6750-6800	0/0
	No water	Anhui Province	7450-7550	7450-7550	0/0
	No water	Shandong	7350-7500	7350-7500	0/0
	General level	Shandong	6700-6750	6700-6750	0/0
	Superior grade	Shandong	6850-7050	6850-7050	0/0
	Send it to other places without water.	Shandong	7400-7500	7400-7500	0/0
	General level	Northern Jiangsu	6700-6750	6700-6750	0/0
	No water	Northern Jiangsu	7450-7550	7450-7550	0/0
	General level	Southern Jiangsu	6800-6900	6800-7000	0/0
Central China	Superior grade	Henan	6700-6700	6700-6700	0/0
Central China	No water	Henan	7400-7600	7400-7600	0/0

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Area	Market	Raw materials / by-products	2023/11/13	Remarks
Northeast China	Jilin	Corn	2400-2440
Northeast China	Jilin	DDGS	2450-2500
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	Corn	2298-2330	Less transactions at a low price
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	DDGS	2380-2450	High fat
Central China	Henan	Corn	2700-2730
Central China	Henan	DDGS	2250-2350
Thailand		Dried cassava	275-279
Shandong		Ethyl acetate	6400-6410	Acceptance leaves the factory
Jiangsu Province		Ethyl acetate	6500-6600
South China		Ethyl acetate	6600-6700

Future forecast: in the short term, China's ethanol market is weak, prices in Northeast China are weak, Heilongjiang is likely to be weak, and some logistics routes are affected by a small number of vehicles and relatively concentrated shipments. this week's weather forecast may have the possibility of snow in the northeast. There is a possibility of weakness after the resumption of shipments by individual large factories in Henan, and it is expected that the price will be weak in the short term. The start of construction in East China is not high, after the resumption of logistics, the inflow of non-local sources of goods, the supply of goods from ports is stable, the transaction price of chemical rigid demand is weak, and the short-term price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The short-term supply of coal-based ethanol increases, and the downstream demand for fuel ethanol is general. After the snowfall, logistics resumes and prices are likely to be weak.

Raw material: corn ethanol: China's corn fell to a low level in the early period, and farmers lost money and sold at a low price, but recently prices rebounded slightly and remained stable. At present, ddgs due to the rebound in corn prices, feed rebounded. Cassava dry aspect: enterprise rigid demand procurement, Thailand is willing to raise the price is obvious, cassava dry inventory sales are expected short-term cassava dry price high finishing. The market is low in price and average in quality.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning Hongda shutdown, Baoquanling shutdown, Luobei production, Cofco Zhaodong normal, Wanli installation normal, Hongzhan 4 factories normal, Heilongjiang Shenglong production, Zhongkegreen production, Fuyu Huihai production; Fukang production, Tianyu production, Shuntong production, Dongfeng Huafeng production, Xintianlong normal, Liuniu production. Huadong Huatian production, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin downtime, Guohua shutdown, Changxing downtime, Longhe downtime, Romat production, sul shutdown, Fulaichun shutdown, Maybohui shutdown, and MINUSTAH production. Houyuan in Mengzhou, Henan Province is recovering, others are normal. Jufeng shuts down. Chifeng Ruiyang production, Zhalantun production, Inner Mongolia Jietainuo plant production. Jilin fuel is normal, Guotou Tieling production. Tianguan Nanyang production. Guotou Jidong production. State Investment Helen production.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Liquor order purchase.

Logistics: high price arrangement of logistics.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises

Enterprise name	Production capacity (10,000 tons / year)	Maintenance involves production capacity	Maintenance start time	Remarks
Hongzhan (Jixian)	60	60	April fifteenth	Start up on May 6th
Jilin Fukang	50	4	March 28th
Heilongjiang Hexing grain and oil	3	3	Late March
Inner Mongolia Shuntong	12	12	Production on October 8th
Heilongjiang Zhongke Green	10	10	Production on August 30th
Fulaichun, Shandong Province	20	20	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Dongcheng	15	15	Stop the machine
Guannan COVID-19, Lianyungang	5	5	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Haiyan	15	15	Start up in the middle of May
Jiangsu Maibo remittance	8	8	Stop feeding at the beginning of April
Shuyang Guohua	5	5	Resume downtime in mid-August around July 10
Anhui COFCO	75	30	It is expected to shut down in September on April 20th.
Anhui Wuhechun	8	8	Stop the machine
Jilin Xintianlong	30	30	Shut down on May 5, start on the 17th, reduce production on the 21st, full production on July 15th.
Heilongjiang Sheng long	15	15	Shut down on April 27-start on June 5, put in material from July 19 to September 16
Inner Mongolia Liniu	10	10	October production
Hanyong, Mengzhou, Henan Province	30	30	One-line production
Houyuan, Mengzhou, Henan Province	50	50	Open on May 21 and shut down on October 26th
Jilin Dongfeng Hua Grain	10	10	Fire from 17 April to 9 October
National Investment Helen	30	30	April 12-May 24, September 20-September 26	Fuel fuel
Guotou Jidong	30	30	April 3rd	Fuel fuel
Zhenjiang Changxing	10	10	All machines were shut down on May 16, June 5, July 19, August 28, November 6.
Jin Changlin in Lianyungang	5	5	Shutdown on May 18, production on August 7, shutdown around August 15.
Hongzhang, ha.	60	30	From 27 May to 20 July, Phase II from September 25 to October 9
Fukang	50	50	Feed from August 10 to August 31
Tianyu	15	15	Stop feeding on July 21 and feed on August 13
Cofco Zhaodong	30	10	Stop feeding on June 5-June 20, July 15 stop fuel production on July 31, feed on August 15
Chifeng Ruiyang	8	8	Shut down on June 10th and feed on July 4th.
Hongzhan Tahiko	30	30	Stop from June 20th to July 5th
Wanli Runda	60	60	Shutdown on July 15th and feeding on July 31st
Lianyungang Longhe River	10	10	July 3 device stop feeding August 21 feeding November 3 shutdown
Jiangsu sul alcohol	12	12	The device was shut down on July 3
Liaoyuan giant peak	50	50	Production stopped on July 4th and August 1st.
Zalantun	10	10	The product will be released around July 6th.
Shandong Yingxuan	20	20	Shut down at the end of June and put in material on July 25.
Jilin fuel	70	70	The two lines will be inspected from 31 July to 20 August.
Guotou Tieling	30	30	The machine was shut down on July 31 for maintenance and put in the material on August 10.
Henan Nanyang Tianguan	30	30	August 15 put into production
Romet.	5	5	August 18 put into production
Fuyu Huihai	5	5	Downtime in mid-August-October 3
China Colleen	10	10	Feeding starts on August 22nd
Guotou Jidong	30	30	Feed in early September
Hongzhan Huannan	30	30	October 08-October 22