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Caustic soda: The futures price fluctuated by more than 100 points within the day, and there was another upward trend. Spot prices rose slightly regionally

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November 10, 2023, 5:54 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    November 10 SH2405 contract opening price: 2641, the highest price: 2752, the lowest price: 2635, the spread: 117,117, the position: 63569, the increase: 3911,the settlement price: 2699, yesterday's settlement: 2621, up: 78, the closing price: 2682, the daily trading volume: 351128 hands, the precipitated capital: 1.228 billion, the capital inflow: 30.56 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

November ninth

November tenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1350

950-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

736-800

736-800

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

760-840

760-840

0/0

-

Hebei

820-840

820-860

0/20

Ex-factory price

South China

950-1250

950-1250

0/0

Can price

Shandong

730-850

730-860

0/10

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1050-1100

1050-1100

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

800-860

810-860

10/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2600-2650

2600-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

800-880

800-880

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2850-3000

2850-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1220-1350

1220-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1330-1350

1330-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1200-1270

1200-1270

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2750-3000

2750-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2700-3000

2700-3000

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3600

3500-3600

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1320-1430

1330-1430

10/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

940-1000

940-1000

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3100-3250

3100-3250

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      caustic soda market transaction prices in a few areas of the Chinese caustic soda market move slightly, the market trading atmosphere is general, near the weekend, the market wait-and-see mood is heavier, the price adjustment mentality is more cautious, and most areas maintain a stable trend. Today, the trading atmosphere of the liquid alkali market is OK, prices in some areas have risen slightly, and most regional markets have maintained yesterday's level of operation. from the perspective of regional market price adjustment, 32% of ionic membrane alkali rose 10-20 yuan / ton, 49% ion-exchange membrane alkali rose 10 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The rise in the price of low-concentration type alkali in some areas is mainly due to the lack of maintenance equipment of local chlor-alkali enterprises and the insufficient start-up load of some devices, which supports the local price, and the price center of gravity of market transaction is mainly moved up. The shipping situation of enterprises in some areas has improved slightly, so the shipping price has been tentatively raised. The market prices in other regions are stable, the changes between supply and demand are not obvious, the market mentality is more cautious, and there is no obvious price adjustment. Some manufacturers in some areas of upstream production enterprises have raised their ex-factory quotations, while manufacturers in most other regions have not adjusted their quotations for the time being. Today, the tablet alkali market continues to maintain a stable trend, manufacturers in the northwest region have no inventory for the time being, the signing of orders by enterprises is stable, the start of the plant is relatively stable, and individual enterprises have individual production lines to stop. At present, the supply of tablet alkali in the market is a little tight, and the manufacturers have a heavy mentality of pushing up the price. The shipments of traders are different, the downstream receiving enthusiasm is general, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the market transaction prices in most areas have not changed significantly.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract as a whole uplink. After the night trading price jumped short and opened high, it rose strongly and fell slightly in late trading. After the morning session, the price rose to the recent high of 2752 and then fluctuated downwards, then rose again in late trading, and then fell back after a small rise in the afternoon. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2635-2752 throughout the day, with a spread of 117 and a position increase of 381 hands, with 63569 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index rose to 2784.75, up 3.46%, or 0.125%, and China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract from the recent trend, there is pressure above the price, lower support, in the difficult to rise and fall stage, the technical level shows Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) opening slightly upward, but the upward trend is not obvious, the daily level of KD line cross-winding, MACD line is still a line gold fork. Today's soda price trend is relatively strong, touching the limit plate, there is also a certain pull to the caustic soda plate. In the short term, the operation of futures prices may continue to show a narrow pattern, and the upper-track pressure level still needs to be observed.

Spot aspect: although the spot price of caustic soda has picked up slightly, but the whole is not obvious, the market is still dominated by stable operation, and the price is adjusted flexibly in some areas. Basically, there is no substantial boost to the market as a whole, and no guiding news has been heard from the policy side, but the trend of the later market still needs to be seen from the level of supply and demand. At present, most of the devices on the supply side are stable. A small number of devices are under maintenance, and the early maintenance equipment has a gradual recovery plan since mid-November. By the end of the month, the equipment or start-up will return to normal, and the supply side may still be unfavorable. On the demand side, there is a resumption of production in some areas of the main downstream alumina, and the demand shows regional differences. The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber in the lower reaches of non-aluminum has increased slightly this week, while the operating rate of the papermaking and textile printing and dyeing industry has declined slightly. In the later period, the demand for non-aluminum downstream or small fluctuations, more rigid demand to support the caustic soda market. It is expected that the short-term caustic soda market may be dominated by a stable trend, and there are factors that affect the local price trend in some areas, and the price will be adjusted flexibly.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

November ninth

November tenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

300-500

400-600

100/100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

400-500

500-600

100/100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

300-350

350-400

50/50

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

150-350

250-450

100/100

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

350-450

350-450

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

250-300

250-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

400-600

500-700

100/100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 50% to 466.67 on November 10, an increase of 12%. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: