Methanol: Futures returns to the 2500 mark and the spot market increases within a narrow range

90,621

November 8, 2023, 4:50 PM

On November 8, the methanol market price index was 2269.53, up 8.83 from yesterday and 0.39 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 7th:

China CFR 284-288 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 347.5-348.5 euros / ton, down 0.5 euros / ton

Us FOB 103-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 349-350USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2250 (0), North Route: 2040-2090 (0), Lunan: 2350-2360 (- 20), Henan: 2270-2290 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2220 (20), Port: 24752505 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 210-280 (- 20 Uniqtel 20), South Route-North Shandong 250-280 (0 mer mer 30), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (0 amp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol futures continued a narrow upward trend, market quotations in some parts of China are arranged at a high level under the support of little supply pressure, downstream still maintain rigid demand replenishment, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is relatively light. Specifically, the market quotations in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with today's quotation of 2040-2090 yuan / ton on the north line and 2050-2060 yuan / ton on the south line. At present, the fundamentals of methanol are still in a weak supply and demand pattern, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. Ningxia quotation is running at a high price under the support of low supply, and the manufacturers' price attitude is strong. From the perspective of Shandong, the main consumer area, there is still a certain wait-and-see mood among downstream manufacturers. Although the recent futures market continues to rise, the boost to the spot market is relatively limited, and the downstream rigid demand for replenishment is mainly low. Today, Lunan quotes 2350-2360 yuan / ton, and northern Shandong quotes 2020-2330 yuan / ton. The market price in central China is adjusted in a narrow range. Henan quotation is 2270-2290 yuan / ton, Lianghu quotation is 2450-2630 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general, some operators in the market lack confidence in the future, and rigid demand is the main transaction. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures rebounded after falling, and the closing price returned to the 2500 mark. The mentality of the operators in the market was supported, and the spot quotation in the port area was raised along with the market. All-day Taicang transaction price range: spot / 11 on 2475-2505; 11 on 2475-2505 on 11 2485-2510 on 12 on 2495-2535.

Area	2023/11/8	2023/11/7	Rise and fall
The whole country	2269.53	2260.70	8.83
Northwest	2040-2200	2040-2250	0/50
North China	2200-2300	2180-2350	20/-50
East China	2475-2560	2475-2550	0/10
South China	2465-2560	2465-2550	0/10
Southwest	2400-2570	2400-2540	0/30
Northeast China	2350-2480	2350-2450	0/30
Shandong	2320-2360	2320-2370	0/-20
Central China	2270-2630	2280-2600	-10/30

Future forecast: recently, the methanol futures market shows a concussive upward trend, coupled with the decline in the start of some regional markets in China, the market atmosphere has slightly improved, and the market quotation in the main producing areas is running at a high level, but it is subject to the influence of downstream demand. the overall trading volume is limited, and during the week, with the arrival and unloading of a large number of shipments, and the pick-up speed of the mainstream regional market is less than that of the previous period. Led to a wide increase in total inventory in the port area market this week, under the influence of increased supply pressure, operators have different feelings about the future, and short-term transactions only maintain rigid demand. At present, the fundamentals of methanol have not changed obviously for the time being. although the futures market fluctuates upward, it has a limited effect on boosting market sentiment, and the transaction in the downstream market still maintains rigid demand, and the methanol market price may continue the interval fluctuation trend in the short term. however, in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the operation of air head units in southwest China and the start-up of traditional downstream demand affected by seasonal factors.

Recent operation of the device:

Name of production enterprise	Annual capacity; ten thousand tons	Raw material	Starting date of maintenance	Maintenance end date	Operation of the device
Shaanxi Weihua	20	Coal	2023/10/9	2023/10/30	Restarted
Inner Mongolia black cat	30	Coke oven gas	2023/10/17	2023/10/31	Restarted
Shanxi Ganyang	30	Coke oven gas	2023/10/20	2023/10/31	Restarted
Guizhou Tianfu	20	Coal	2023/10/29	2023/11/8	Parking maintenance
Yunnan Pioneer	50	Coal	2023/10/28	2023/11/19	Parking maintenance
Yunnan qu coal	20	Coke oven gas	2023/10/30	2023/11/6	Parking maintenance
Yulin Yanzhou Mine	60	Coal	2023/11/2	2023/11/5	Restarted
Oweigan yuan	20	Coal	2023/11/1	2023/11/10	Parking maintenance
Lu Tianhua	40	Natural gas	2023/11/7	To be determined	Fault impending stop