Methanol: Futures market continues to be red, spot prices are sorted out at a high level

On November 7th, the methanol market price index was 2260.70, down 1.05% from yesterday and 0.05% lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 6th:

China CFR 284-289 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 348-349 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 103-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 349-350USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2220 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2060-2130 (0), Lunan: 2370 (10), Henan: 2280-2285 (0), Shanxi: 2180-2230 (- 40), Port: & nbsp;2475-2500 (30)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 230-300 (10ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-310 (0ram 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (0ram 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-190 (- 30gamble 40)

Spot market: today, the methanol futures market continues the trend of narrow upward adjustment, and China's spot quotations are arranged at a high level, but affected by downstream demand, the overall trading volume of the market is limited, and rigid demand is still the mainstream trend of the market. Specifically, the market quotations in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with today's quotation of 2060-2130 yuan / ton for the north line and 2080-2100 yuan / ton for the south line. Although the futures market continues the trend of slight upward adjustment, the role of boosting the market is limited, and some enterprises ship goods at stable prices. The transaction is relatively general. The market price in Guanzhong area has been adjusted narrowly. Shaanxi Changqing methanol has been raised by 30 yuan / ton for the third time this week: 2240 yuan / ton factory cash exchange for large single price and 2250 yuan / ton plant for small single price. From the Shandong region, the main consumer area, at present, there is still a certain wait-and-see mood among downstream manufacturers, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish goods is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. At present, Lunan quotes 2370 yuan / ton, and Lubei quotes 2320-2330 yuan / ton. Shandong Shenchi chemical methanol bidding 2330 yuan / ton; Lihuayi 2320 yuan / ton; Oriental Hualong 2320 yuan / ton; Jincheng will not bid today. The market price in central China is adjusted in a narrow range. Henan quotation is 2280-2285 yuan / ton, Lianghu quotation is 2450-2600 yuan / ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose today after a pullback. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. Long-term high shipments, arbitrage to receive goods, basis trading is also a transaction. The current basis fluctuates slightly in the range. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 11: 2475-2500, basis 01pm: 2485-2505, base difference 01x10: 11 transaction: 2490-2515, base difference 01q12Universe 17 transaction 12: 2500-2505, base difference 01x18 position 12: 2510-2525, base difference 01x25balance 29.

Future forecast: recently, some parts of China are affected by the gas restriction policy in southwest China, and the plant has operations such as parking or reducing the negative load. Lutianhua's annual production of 400000 tons of natural gas to methanol is about to stop today due to failure, and the specific recovery time has yet to be determined. Yunnan Pioneer 500000 tons of plant parking, the local market supply has been reduced, but at present the Chinese market still maintains a high position, and the traditional downstream market demand follow-up is limited, the Chinese market quotation rising power is insufficient, although the futures market has been raised, but the role of boosting market sentiment is limited, some regional manufacturers for the existence of delivery profit operation, but the transaction is still general. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market still exists, and the methanol market price may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but there is still a certain upward price sentiment in some parts of the market under the support of low supply pressure. in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil, coal and natural gas.